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Mesoscale Discussion 827
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...N AND NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281956Z - 282130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN OK INTO NORTH TX. THE AREA IS
   BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF W AND
   FAR NW TX IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND PROGRESS IN A GENERAL E-SEWD
   DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...EVENTUALLY ENTERING ADDITIONAL
   PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
   EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO OCCURRING
   FARTHER E INTO S-CNTRL OK ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE AIR
   MASS HAS DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
   CONVECTION AMIDST 70S SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...WITH MLCAPE NOW ESTIMATED AT 2000-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
   VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A DMGG
   WIND THREAT /ESPECIALLY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
   NW TX/ AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY STILL EVOLVE. THE
   TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A
   TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   35089864 35209772 35159692 34779630 33519579 31549804
               31049871 31089946 32209946 32969883 34139879 35089864 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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