Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 827
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 827 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 050635Z - 050800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR
   ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. AN APPRECIABLY INCREASING
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST PROMINENT CONCERN
   INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...BUT SOME RISK FOR AN EMBEDDED
   TORNADO AND/OR EPISODIC LARGE HAIL MAY EXIST AS WELL.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
   GROW UPSCALE INTO A BROADER/INTENSE MCS WHILE STILL MAINTAINING SOME
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL CO JUST SOUTH
   OF I-70 AS OF 0620Z. TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS SURFACE LOW/ANGLING FRONT BOUNDARY...STRENGTHENING
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AMPLE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION NEAR/AHEAD OF
   THE EVOLVING MCS. THESE ADVECTIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A RESERVOIR
   OF AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK AS PER
   00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY AND LAMONT OK /2000-3500 J
   PER KG MLCAPE/. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DODGE CITY INDICATES
   THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 1-2 KM HAVE INCREASED TO AS MUCH AS
   40 KT.

   ALL SAID...CONTINUED UPSCALE EXPANSION OF AN INCREASINGLY
   ORGANIZED/ACCELERATING QUASI-LINEAR MCS SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR
   THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. AS THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZES/ACCELERATES
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY INTENSE DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38160177 38840174 39370106 39409872 39069749 38069776
               37889819 37679905 37880112 38160177 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 05, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities