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Mesoscale Discussion 828
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0828
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Areas affected...Central/eastern Tennessee into south-central and
   southeastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241647Z - 241745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...An uptick in convection has been noted over the past hour
   or so.  A tornado watch will likely be coordinated soon for the
   discussion area.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has increased over Middle Tennessee in the
   past hour or so, with one supercell exhibiting increasing rotation
   and attendant hail/wind/tornado threat over Trousdale and Smith
   Counties.  Shear profiles are supportive of storm organization and
   occasional rotation in the region, and storms interacting near a
   remnant outflow boundary over south-central Kentucky and
   northeastern Tennessee may briefly exhibit an increase in severe
   potential as storms move roughly perpendicular to it.  The
   environment is characterized by weak to moderate instability
   (500-1250 J/kg MUCAPE), and this instability should increase with
   time owing to persistent low-level warm advection and ongoing
   insolation across the region.  Tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind
   gusts are possible with organized activity, and a tornado watch will
   likely be coordinated within the hour for affected areas.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36448642 36798625 37138597 37568537 37608489 37538451
               37338430 37058414 36898404 36058389 35508390 35208455
               35038513 35078574 35498623 35858640 36448642 

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