MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SERN NE...NWRN MO...SWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 151214Z - 151345Z
   
   AS ONE SMALL MCS MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MISSOURI...ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE ALONG A
   DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER NRN KS...AND INTO SRN NE. INDICATIONS ARE
   THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE SOME THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND A WATCH
   IS POSSIBLE IF A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS OBSERVED.
   
   WITH LLJ TOPPING OUT AT 50-60KT ACROSS OK/KS THIS MORNING...
   MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS GREAT PLAINS WARM FRONT IN KS IS
   PROBABLY AT ITS MOST INTENSE. LARGER SCALE LIFT ACROSS THIS ZONE MAY
   ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
   ACROSS UT/WY ATTM. PARCELS ORIGINATING IN WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR
   MASS FARTHER SOUTH ARE REACHING AN LFC AROUND 750MB INVOF NCNTRL KS
   AND REALIZING MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. CLOUD-BEARING
   SHEAR WITHIN 700-400MB LAYER...PER LATEST RUC/ACARS
   SOUNDINGS...APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE/UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...UPDRAFT STRENGTH GIVEN
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THESE STORMS...WILL LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED/BRIEF LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
   THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE
   ROCKIES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BECOME FURTHER SUPPORTIVE
   OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/15/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   39339482 39259599 39599761 40199845 40819853 41109795
               41229623 40959401 40439349 39579364 39339482