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Mesoscale Discussion 829
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO/FAR NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224...

   VALID 050742Z - 050915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 224 CONTINUES PRINCIPALLY ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH 10Z WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF FAR
   NORTH AR BUT AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HP
   SUPERCELL AS OF 0730Z WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL
   AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FOCUS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY
   REINFORCED BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO IN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
   WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME. SIMILAR TO THE 00Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD MO...THE AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS AT LEAST
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH UPWARDS OF 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE IN THE
   PRESENCE OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR...A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR HP-TYPE
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/WELL-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. WHILE ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO FAR NORTHERN AR
   OVERNIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OWING
   TO RELATIVELY MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK.

   ..GUYER.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36759486 37289490 37689403 36899247 36129224 36129366
               36759486 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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