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Mesoscale Discussion 829
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...MUCH OF SOUTHWEST/WEST TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 234...

   VALID 282042Z - 282145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 234 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALL SVR HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 234.
   PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAS SET
   UP NEAR A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS NW
   TX...WITH SRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RECENTLY BECOMING MORE
   PROGRESSIVE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED NEAR THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NW TX.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY
   TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.
   EVENTUALLY...THE DMGG WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/BECOME
   DOMINANT INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS TSTMS CONGEAL INTO A LIKELY MCS
   ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34119891 33159907 31590008 30360068 30280070 29080067
               29750147 29740262 28930314 29440428 30610481 31820479
               32460477 32790474 33340463 34130319 34260042 34119891 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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