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Mesoscale Discussion 829
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Areas affected...much of the FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241654Z - 241900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across the FL Peninsula. A
   new tornado watch will be needed for portions of the region by 19z.

   DISCUSSION...A new tornado watch is likely across much of the FL
   Peninsula by 19z. This new watch would replace eastern portions of
   WW 261. Western portions of WW 261 may need to be locally extended
   in time across the eastern FL Panhandle depending on convective
   trends as a marginal severe threat may continue across this area
   through 21z.

   A very moist, strongly unstable environment is in place across the
   Peninsula with dewpoints in the 70s resulting in SBCAPE values
   greater than 2000 J/kg. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have
   begun to develop over central FL as temperatures have climbed into
   the mid and upper 80s. As forcing for ascent increases with the
   approach of the upper trough, effective shear is also expected to
   increase across the region over the next few hours, which should
   result in an increase in thunderstorm intensity and organization.
   RAP forecast soundings in conjunction with regional VAD wind
   profiles continue to indicated favorable shear profiles supportive
   of low-level rotation. This, combined with mean mixing ratios
   greater than 16 g/kg will support a tornado threat. Given the
   strength of deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates coupled
   with PW values approaching 2 inches, damaging winds also will be

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   26008007 25968019 25948102 26028158 26458211 26938255
               27018260 27758298 28768287 28768287 29558254 30028222
               30188184 30158141 30098122 29718084 26707987 26008007 

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