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Mesoscale Discussion 830
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226...

   VALID 050850Z - 051045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...INTENSE/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 10Z-12Z ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS/BOW
   ECHO.

   DISCUSSION...CONSEQUENTIAL UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH CONTINUES TO
   OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN KS AS OF 0830Z VIA AN 80-MILE NORTH-SOUTH
   EXTENSIVE LINEAR MCS AND A PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION-TYPE CORRIDOR OF
   STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE MCS HAS NOW
   GENERALLY REACHED 40 KT...AND ADDITIONAL FORWARD
   PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   STORMS MERGERS CONTINUE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A
   50+ KT FORWARD MOTION SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   /POTENTIALLY BY 10Z-11Z/.

   AHEAD OF THE MCS...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO OCCUR
   PRINCIPALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE 3+MB/2HR FALLS
   ARE NOTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   /NEAR 70 F/. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL
   INFLUX OF WARM/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW
   THE MCS TO CONTINUE TO THRIVE WHILE OTHERWISE GROWING
   UPSCALE/FORWARD ACCELERATING. IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
   MCS...50-60 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW EVIDENT BETWEEN 4-6
   KM AGL IN WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM GOODLAND/DODGE CITY KS...WHICH NOT
   ONLY SPEAKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW /ALIGNED
   PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS/ BUT ALSO EVOLVING MCV-TYPE ENHANCEMENTS. 

   OVERALL...A NUMBER OF FACTORS SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASINGLY INTENSE
   MCS/BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
   THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN SPITE OF NEAR-SURFACE INHIBITION...A
   POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE RISK APPEARS LIKELY INTO CENTRAL
   KS.

   ..GUYER.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38400131 39030149 39550117 39339821 38269704 37439781
               37900152 38400131 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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