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Mesoscale Discussion 832
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0832
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Areas affected...Northeastern South Carolina...central North
   Carolina...and southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 241913Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are moving northeastward into the
   discussion area, with additional isolated development in southern
   North Carolina over the past hour.  A tornado watch will likely be
   needed before 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms over WWs 263 and 264 have
   exhibited an uptick in intensity and rotation over the past hour or
   so, while moving northeastward at around 25-30 knots.  The
   environment across the discussion area is moderately unstable south
   of a warm front over northern North Carolina (just south of and
   parallel to the Virginia state line).  1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and
   200-250 m2/s2 effective SRH will sustain upstream storms as they
   move into the discussion area, with tornadoes and damaging wind
   gusts being the primary threats with this activity (although hail
   cannot be completely ruled out).  A tornado watch will likely be
   needed for a large part of the discussion area by 21Z if not before.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36068115 36408131 36788111 36978074 37018021 36907943
               36817884 36657824 36337762 36047739 35687741 35287748
               34917756 34497769 34047796 33867832 33597879 33387913
               33377948 33737988 34078002 34438009 34787995 35187998
               35668009 35968029 36058062 36068115 

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