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Mesoscale Discussion 833
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...

   VALID 290622Z - 290745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   BECOMING MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PERSIST SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
   LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
   DAYBREAK.  IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE LARGE ONGOING MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 
   FORWARD/EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
   MODEST...AROUND 30 KT...AND 3 SECOND PEAK GUSTS AT MOST OBSERVATION
   SITES HAVE BEEN 40 KT OR LESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE.  

   THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A RECENT SEVERE GUST RECORDED AT LACKLAND
   AFB...ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  THIS IS WHERE
   WEAKENING TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER...PERHAPS AIDED BY STRONGER
   SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW ALONG A 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS. 
   GIVEN THE VERY MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE /CAPE OF 2000+ J PER KG/
   AIR AHEAD OF THE GUST FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...IT MAY
   NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOWER TEXAS
   COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY
   MAY TEND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...TOWARD THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF STRONGER
   INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR.  THIS
   COULD INCLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG SURFACE
   GUSTS.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28629893 28939876 29179826 29089779 27949745 27109729
               26309769 26229853 27009910 28029956 28519993 28629907
               28629893 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2015
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