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Mesoscale Discussion 833
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN
   MO AND NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227...228...

   VALID 051240Z - 051445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   227...228...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO SOME
   SEVERE HAIL...WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK
   INTO MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 227/228 CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/18Z RESPECTIVELY.
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED
   ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTHERN /AND POSSIBLY WESTERN/ MO AND
   NORTHERN AR. 

   A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z
   UPDATE.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE
   TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK
   INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS ASSOCIATED
   WITH A NOTABLE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WHILE THRIVING IN
   A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR/NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
   THE REGION. THE MCS IS ALSO LIKELY BE AIDED BY AN MCV/REAR INFLOW
   JET WITH 50+ KT WINDS AS LOW AS 4KM AGL AS PER THE WICHITA WSR-88D
   VWP. WARM SECTOR MLCAPE IS AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST
   OK/SOUTHWEST MO INTO AR...WHICH WILL BE INCREASINGLY REALIZED AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WITH A RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT
   ALREADY IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/...EARLY DAY VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE MCS-PRECEDING AIR MASS WILL INDEED
   STEADILY HEAT THROUGH THE MORNING FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO
   AR/SOUTHERN MO. 

   FARTHER NORTH...AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN ASYMMETRIC SQUALL
   LINE-TYPE EVOLUTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTH-SIDE COMMA HEAD
   VORTICES CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE POTENTIALLY AS FAR
   NORTH AS ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A 53 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY
   MEASURED AT SALINA KS AS OF AROUND 1210Z. ADDITIONALLY...WAKE LOW
   RELATED WINDS TO SEVERE-CALIBER LEVELS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ACCORDANCE
   WITH PRONOUNCED PRESSURE FALLS /8-9MB PER 2HR FALLS/ ACROSS CENTRAL
   KS WITH MCS-TRAILING EASTERLY WINDS.

   ..GUYER.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36589771 37389679 38419665 38769747 39489601 39049379
               37819177 35729197 35169439 35419632 36199753 36589771 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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