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Mesoscale Discussion 834
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA...ERN OK AND AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291733Z - 291900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
   THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
   TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESO-LOW OVER NE TX
   WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST TX AND LA
   EXTENDING NWD INTO AR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
   70S F. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
   SFC LOW ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SFC TEMPS HAVE
   WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION
   WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY SHOULD
   INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. IN
   ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS AT SHREVEPORT AND IN WRN AR SHOW 35 TO 40 KT
   OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF THE HRRR LOOKS
   REASONABLE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT
   APPROACHES THE OK-AR STATE-LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS
   SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE
   INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
   TORNADO THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   31739281 31279369 31309450 32269485 32909490 34349501
               35119491 35659409 35569278 34719226 31739281 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2015
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