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Mesoscale Discussion 834
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN/NERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 051427Z - 051530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEWD-MOVING
   MCS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER INTO WRN TN/NRN MS.  SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED...FAST-MOVING MCS IS PROGRESSING INTO SWRN
   MO WITH A NEW MCV FORMING JUST NORTH OF JLN. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL
   LINE IS PROPAGATING SEWD IN EXCESS OF 60KT AND WILL APPROACH ERN
   EDGE OF WW 228 BY 1530Z.  DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE WITH THIS MCS WITH
   NUMEROUS MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT.  AT 1353Z WINDS
   GUSTED TO 56KT AT JLN.

   VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
   CNTRL AR WITH VALUES BETWEEN 14-18C.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SWRN
   FLANK OF MCS.  HOWEVER...STRONG ORGANIZED MCV OVER SWRN MO SHOULD
   INDUCE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TURNS SEWD ALONG SYNOPTIC
   FRONT...REINFORCED BY EARLY-MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS WRN TN.  THIS
   CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW MCS TO TURN SWD
   ACROSS WRN TN INTO NRN MS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG CAP.

   ..DARROW.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37399261 36758920 35688764 34128897 35819310 37399261 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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