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Mesoscale Discussion 835
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SE CO...WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
   PANHANDLE...

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291927Z - 292100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS NE NM AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE
   TX AND OK PANHANDLES. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH FROM THE
   VICINITY OF EL PASO EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN NM. SFC
   DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
   50S F AND AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF
   THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS NEAR INTERSTATE-25. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ATTM. ACCORDING TO SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS...THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
   MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. AN
   AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM WEST TX EXTENDING NWWD INTO NE
   NM WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. IN
   ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
   NE NM. THIS IS DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT LOW-LEVELS AND SOME SPEED
   SHEAR ALOFT WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 4 KM ON THE AMA WSR-88D
   VWP. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP AS THE
   HRRR SUGGESTS...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
   STRONGER CORES.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36170510 37190466 37380370 37180272 36320228 35360222
               34280271 34050380 34210458 34840501 36170510 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2015
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