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Mesoscale Discussion 836
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0836
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0559 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast NC...Southeast VA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 266...

   Valid 242259Z - 250030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 266 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado
   may occur for the next hour or so with a gradually weakening storm
   trends anticipated thereafter.

   DISCUSSION...Current regional radar imagery shows a cluster of
   thunderstorms moving north-northeastward through central NC. A few
   stronger storms are embedded within this cluster. Recent surface
   analysis places a warm front from very near SIF (in north-central
   NC) southwestward to OCW in eastern NC and then westward through the
   northern Outer Banks. Thunderstorm activity has increased in
   strength as it interacts with this boundary and some localized
   damaging wind gusts and maybe even a brief tornado are possible over
   the next hour or so. However, the airmass to the north of the warm
   front is characterized by cooler surface temperatures and less
   low-level moisture. As a result, the overall thermodynamic
   environment quickly becomes hostile to more robust convection. Given
   this more hostile environment, the expectation is for the ongoing
   activity to begin experiencing a weakening trend soon and for the
   downstream severe threat across northeast NC and southeast VA to
   remain very isolated. As such, a downstream watch is not currently
   anticipated but convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35977870 36427917 36867911 37147860 37097683 36847616
               36037569 35537584 35547725 35977870 

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