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Mesoscale Discussion 836
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...NWRN KS...NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291930Z - 292130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE EXPECTED
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE RISK.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN CO/SWRN NEB ALONG AND
   IN ADVANCE OF A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER
   LEVEL LOW. SLIGHTLY COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER LOW
   COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST BUOYANCY
   /MLCAPE 500-750 J/KG/. WITH 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE
   DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
   SWD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES
   GUIDANCE. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT ANY SVR THREAT WOULD REMAIN
   ISOLATED...AND AS A RESULT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39519910 39270030 39780274 40140314 40730300 40960233
               41040169 41020072 40890021 40339932 39519910 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2015
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