|Mesoscale Discussion 836|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017
Areas affected...Northeast NC...Southeast VA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 266...
Valid 242259Z - 250030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 266 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado
may occur for the next hour or so with a gradually weakening storm
trends anticipated thereafter.
DISCUSSION...Current regional radar imagery shows a cluster of
thunderstorms moving north-northeastward through central NC. A few
stronger storms are embedded within this cluster. Recent surface
analysis places a warm front from very near SIF (in north-central
NC) southwestward to OCW in eastern NC and then westward through the
northern Outer Banks. Thunderstorm activity has increased in
strength as it interacts with this boundary and some localized
damaging wind gusts and maybe even a brief tornado are possible over
the next hour or so. However, the airmass to the north of the warm
front is characterized by cooler surface temperatures and less
low-level moisture. As a result, the overall thermodynamic
environment quickly becomes hostile to more robust convection. Given
this more hostile environment, the expectation is for the ongoing
activity to begin experiencing a weakening trend soon and for the
downstream severe threat across northeast NC and southeast VA to
remain very isolated. As such, a downstream watch is not currently
anticipated but convective trends will be monitored closely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35977870 36427917 36867911 37147860 37097683 36847616
36037569 35537584 35547725 35977870
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