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Mesoscale Discussion 836
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...CNTRL/ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051647Z - 051745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
   SOUTH OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN VA INTO CNTRL/ERN NC.  WIND/HAIL MAY
   BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS HAVE RECENTLY
   CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF RDU.  STEEPEST LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA
   WHERE SFC-3KM VALUES ARE APPROACHING 8 C/KM.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ARE EXPECTED
   ALONG/SOUTH OF COLD FRONT.

   ..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36147882 36747725 36807534 35797502 34967747 35127916
               36147882 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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