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Mesoscale Discussion 837
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0837
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0932 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern Georgia and southern
   South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250232Z - 250330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms may be possible
   over the next few hours, with an attendant threat for gusty winds.
   This threat should remain small in space and time, such that watch
   issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A few strong to briefly severe storms remain possible
   late this evening. As a mid/upper trough continues to approach the
   Southeast this evening, strong forcing for ascent aloft is promoting
   convective re-development with the residual surface-based buoyancy
   remaining. The 00Z TLH sounding sampled around 650 J/kg of MLCAPE,
   and areas farther north likely are characterized by about 300-600
   J/kg. Nonetheless, regional observed soundings and KVAX VWP data
   indicate vigorous southwesterly flow within the convective layer
   (upwards of around 50 kt at 850mb). Therefore, stronger cells that
   develop near the surface front may be capable of gusty winds. This
   threat will be enhanced by any small bowing segments, organized by a
   relatively uni-directional shear profile. However, due to a lack of
   greater buoyancy (as well as an increase in convective inhibition
   with eastward extent), the overall severe threat should remain low,
   likely precluding new watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Weiss.. 05/25/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30988377 33438255 33548198 33518154 33198138 32478152
               31648192 30888240 30808338 30848367 30988377 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2017
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