Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern Georgia and southern
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250232Z - 250330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms may be possible
over the next few hours, with an attendant threat for gusty winds.
This threat should remain small in space and time, such that watch
issuance is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A few strong to briefly severe storms remain possible
late this evening. As a mid/upper trough continues to approach the
Southeast this evening, strong forcing for ascent aloft is promoting
convective re-development with the residual surface-based buoyancy
remaining. The 00Z TLH sounding sampled around 650 J/kg of MLCAPE,
and areas farther north likely are characterized by about 300-600
J/kg. Nonetheless, regional observed soundings and KVAX VWP data
indicate vigorous southwesterly flow within the convective layer
(upwards of around 50 kt at 850mb). Therefore, stronger cells that
develop near the surface front may be capable of gusty winds. This
threat will be enhanced by any small bowing segments, organized by a
relatively uni-directional shear profile. However, due to a lack of
greater buoyancy (as well as an increase in convective inhibition
with eastward extent), the overall severe threat should remain low,
likely precluding new watch issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30988377 33438255 33548198 33518154 33198138 32478152
31648192 30888240 30808338 30848367 30988377