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Mesoscale Discussion 838
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0838
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Areas affected...South Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251223Z - 251430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may become marginally severe later
   this morning, with hail or wind. But coverage may not warrant a
   watch.

   DISCUSSION...A weak cold front currently extends across south
   Florida, with substantial tropical moisture to the south. The 12Z
   MFA and KEY soundings both show PW approaching 2" along with
   2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Further, mid to upper level wind
   fields remain strong, which is lengthening hodographs.

   Scattered storms currently exist along the front and extending
   southwestward over the Gulf, with a few showers ahead of the front
   as well. With pockets of heating, a few of these storms could become
   marginally severe with hail or wind. However, generally unfavorable
   synoptic-scale conditions will ensue throughout the day with the
   upper trough lifting away from the area. Thus, the overall threat is
   not expected to be widespread or warrant a watch.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/25/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   24848054 24308181 24468194 24848268 25378296 26218251
               26738213 28158045 27087994 26167986 25228013 24848054 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2017
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