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Mesoscale Discussion 838
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN IA...NERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051855Z - 052030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTH
   DAKOTA-IOWA BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL POSE A
   THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.  A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   WORTHINGTON MN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR NORFOLK NE...AHEAD OF A SLOW
   MOVING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.  MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER
   0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J.KG WILL
   SUPPORT MULTICELL STRUCTURES AND A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  HAIL
   GUIDANCE BASED ON SHORT TERM RAP PFCS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 1-1.5
   INCH HAIL WITH STRONGEST MORE ISOLATED STORMS. SOME STRENGTHENING OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
   APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE RISK.  1800 UTC VWP AT SUX INDICATES
   SOME STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT RAP FCST INDICATES
   CURRENT 4-6KM MEAN WINDS REMAIN STEADY AT 30KTS UNTIL SHIFTING TO NW
   FLOW AFTER PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
   CONVECTION.

   ..SCHNEIDER/CARBIN.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   44129600 43869445 42479475 41769512 41019591 41139796
               41929754 43139664 44129600 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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