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Mesoscale Discussion 839
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0839
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Areas affected...Southern Maryland...central/eastern Virginia...and
   central/eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251659Z - 251800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should gradually increase in
   intensity over the course of the afternoon, although any severe
   threat is expected to remain isolated.  A weather watch issuance is
   not currently anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...The combination of continued pockets of surface heating
   and forcing for ascent aloft with approach of a mid-level
   disturbance over southern Ohio will foster a gradual increase in
   convective coverage and intensity across the discussion area this
   afternoon.  500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 knot deep shear could
   foster organized, sustained updrafts with some threat for 1-1.5"
   hail stones and damaging wind gusts in/near the strongest activity. 
   Weak low-level shear profiles will foster more
   outflow-dominant/forward propagating storms initially although
   low-level flow will increase some later in the afternoon.  Any
   severe threat should be too isolated to necessitate a severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 05/25/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39207862 39387816 39417704 39247620 38757586 37967578
               37077582 36267599 35527630 34967694 34867762 35037848
               35177890 35507912 36167876 36697865 37427859 38167874
               38667887 38927880 39207862 

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