MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...FAR SWRN SD...WRN NEB...NERN CO AND NWRN
   KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 091800Z - 092030Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN WY/NERN
   CO OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. A FEW OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SVR
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR
   SWRN SD...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NWRN KS AFTER 21Z. THE AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AND A WW. 
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN WY /EAST
   OF THE LARAMIE MTNS/. SFC PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ENSUED OVER MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A RESULT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
   MARGINAL ATTM...WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S IN A NARROW AXIS
   EXTENDING FROM NWRN KS INTO NERN WY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SFC
   BASED PARCEL OF 63/42 WOULD SUPPORT SFC BASED TSTMS WITH MUCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG. A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN NERN
   WY...WITH TSTM INITIATION ONLY 1-2 HRS AWAY IN SERN WY/NERN CO WHERE
   CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED. GIVEN STRENGTHENING MID
   LEVEL WINDS /AHEAD OF ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ SUFFICIENT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR /50 KTS/ AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS /AOB 4 KFT/ WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL/WIND. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THE
   STORMS WITHIN A MARGINAL INSTABILITY REGIME...GRADUALLY INCREASING
   INSTABILITY /ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS/ MAY SUPPORT MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT IN THESE AREAS TOWARDS 00Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/09/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   40130338 40740401 41310463 43160553 43760498 43900370
   42160215 41220143 40750133 39920115 39550136 39250238
   39250264