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Mesoscale Discussion 840
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 052025Z - 052200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS FORMING OVER COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
   ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITHIN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED SHORTLY.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
   ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSE A LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER EASTERN CO AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW
   MEXICO.  MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
   RESULT IN 45-65 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.  THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM
   1800UTC NAM AND RECENT RAP PFCS SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
   IN DIAMETER.  COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
   MORE LIMITED...BUT AGAIN...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
   WITH STRONG SUPERCELL STORMS.

   ..SCHNEIDER/CARBIN.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   40420477 40580388 40450297 39960239 39020223 37810223
               37020226 36450257 36210310 36200439 36760511 38630522
               40140518 40420477 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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