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Mesoscale Discussion 840
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF W CNTRL/NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242...

   VALID 300558Z - 300730Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED EAST/EAST
   SOUTHEAST OF WW 242 PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...AFTER BRIEFLY FLARING UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
   SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY TENDED
   TO WEAKEN AGAIN.  DUE TO THE APPARENT MODEST TO WEAK NATURE OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE
   CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES AT AROUND 30-35 KT...TOWARD THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU.  

   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR TO BE PERSISTING WEST
   THROUGH NORTH OF ABILENE...WHERE THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERSECTS A
   WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH TRAILS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING
   THE UPPER IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARK
   PLATEAU REGION.  IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE
   CAPE...STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS AND
   SOUTHEAST OF THE ABILENE AREA.
   HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT COULD STILL BE LIMITED IN GENERAL BY THE
   WEAK DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW/SHEAR.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33179985 33079826 32549737 31649810 31750014 32450067
               33020078 33179985 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2015
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