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Mesoscale Discussion 841
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0841
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the central high Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

   Valid 252223Z - 252330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will push southeast across
   western Kansas this evening, with a continuing threat for large
   hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of severe storms has organized over northwest
   Kansas this evening, with a report of 3-inch diameter hail and a
   tornado earlier in Yuma County, Colorado. These cells have recently
   decreased in intensity somewhat; however, as outflow/merged cold
   pools push southeast (enhanced by large temperature-dew point
   spreads), new updrafts will likely develop, occasionally acquiring
   rotation. Such cells will continue to be capable of large hail and
   damaging winds, with a brief tornado possible as well. While the
   overall intensity trend will be downward later this evening as cells
   move into an environment of larger convective inhibition, any
   sustained updraft rotation (and related upward perturbation pressure
   gradient force) would allow stronger cells to move farther east
   towards central Kansas.

   Across southwest Kansas, deep convection has struggled to sustain
   itself, likely due to considerable dry-air entrainment. Due to a
   relatively narrow corridor favorable for initiation (between the dry
   line and considerable convective inhibition to the east), the
   potential for robust, sustained cells remains limited. In turn, new
   watch issuance or expansion of Watch 267 appears unlikely at this
   time. Nonetheless, a cell or two could deepen enough this evening
   for a brief large hail and/or wind threat.

   ..Picca.. 05/25/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37500132 39340200 39900202 40030192 40090011 39869943
               39609911 38649917 37440037 37350101 37500132 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2017
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