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Mesoscale Discussion 841
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL INTO NERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243...

   VALID 301120Z - 301245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING
   STORMS SPREADING EAST OF THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...BUT A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ACROSS AND
   JUST SOUTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST AHEAD OF AN
   INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT TRAILING AN
   IMPULSE SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU.  INHIBITION FOR
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO
   SLOWLY INCREASE...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CAPE MAY BE
   MORE MODEST EAST OF THE METROPLEX DUE TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.  

   THREE-SECOND PEAK GUSTS RECENTLY AT LEAST APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS
   AT A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   METROPLEX.  WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTION SUPPORTING THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...CONVECTION PASSING
   NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX REMAINS STRONG...AND COULD STILL
   PRODUCE SIMILAR GUSTS THROUGH 12-13Z.  BEYOND THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH.  BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE
   EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER STRENGTHENING.

   ..KERR.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33399631 33139526 32949491 32359447 31889494 31509621
               31539723 31789728 32119698 32759669 33399631 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2015
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