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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091926Z - 092200Z
CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SFC LOW AND CONTINUED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED/SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EWD INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY BY 21Z. ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SVR...WITH THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF TORNADO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR JUNCTION EWD THROUGH
THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR WACO. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE
CINH WAS EVIDENT PER EXTRAPOLATION OF 12Z RAOB DATA AND RECENT MODEL
FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES /MID-UPPER 90S
AT 19Z/ COMBINED WITH MODEST SFC MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCT TSTMS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 21-00Z AS CINH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF WEAKENING CINH /PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS/ OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE SCT MDT CU HAS FORMED. A
FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE REMAINING CINH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THERMALLY/SFC CONVERGENCE ASPECTS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO MAY SUPPORT LARGER SCALE VERTICAL
MOTION. IF ANY TSTM DOES DEVELOP...A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT SVR HAIL/WIND. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF ANY TSTM UPDRAFT...MODERATE AMBIENT SFC VORTICITY /INVOF
STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY/ AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE
CLOUD BASE...A WEAK TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
..CROSBIE.. 05/09/2008
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
30169873 30009952 29980013 30160021 30510014 30709995
30909930 31099856 31269781 31579741 31719713 31579700
31189697 30899727 30279830
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