Mesoscale Discussion 0841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the central high Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...
Valid 252223Z - 252330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will push southeast across
western Kansas this evening, with a continuing threat for large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
DISCUSSION...A pair of severe storms has organized over northwest
Kansas this evening, with a report of 3-inch diameter hail and a
tornado earlier in Yuma County, Colorado. These cells have recently
decreased in intensity somewhat; however, as outflow/merged cold
pools push southeast (enhanced by large temperature-dew point
spreads), new updrafts will likely develop, occasionally acquiring
rotation. Such cells will continue to be capable of large hail and
damaging winds, with a brief tornado possible as well. While the
overall intensity trend will be downward later this evening as cells
move into an environment of larger convective inhibition, any
sustained updraft rotation (and related upward perturbation pressure
gradient force) would allow stronger cells to move farther east
towards central Kansas.
Across southwest Kansas, deep convection has struggled to sustain
itself, likely due to considerable dry-air entrainment. Due to a
relatively narrow corridor favorable for initiation (between the dry
line and considerable convective inhibition to the east), the
potential for robust, sustained cells remains limited. In turn, new
watch issuance or expansion of Watch 267 appears unlikely at this
time. Nonetheless, a cell or two could deepen enough this evening
for a brief large hail and/or wind threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37500132 39340200 39900202 40030192 40090011 39869943
39609911 38649917 37440037 37350101 37500132