MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 091926Z - 092200Z
   
   CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SFC LOW AND CONTINUED
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED/SCT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EWD INTO THE HILL
   COUNTRY BY 21Z. ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY BECOME
   SVR...WITH THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
   A BRIEF TORNADO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR JUNCTION EWD THROUGH
   THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR WACO. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE
   CINH WAS EVIDENT PER EXTRAPOLATION OF 12Z RAOB DATA AND RECENT MODEL
   FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES /MID-UPPER 90S
   AT 19Z/ COMBINED WITH MODEST SFC MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCT TSTMS DEVELOPMENT
   BETWEEN 21-00Z AS CINH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF WEAKENING CINH /PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS/ OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE SCT MDT CU HAS FORMED. A
   FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE REMAINING CINH
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO THE
   THERMALLY/SFC CONVERGENCE ASPECTS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO MAY SUPPORT LARGER SCALE VERTICAL
   MOTION. IF ANY TSTM DOES DEVELOP...A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS /MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
   SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT SVR HAIL/WIND. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
   STRENGTH OF ANY TSTM UPDRAFT...MODERATE AMBIENT SFC VORTICITY /INVOF
   STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY/ AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE
   CLOUD BASE...A WEAK TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/09/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   30169873 30009952 29980013 30160021 30510014 30709995
   30909930 31099856 31269781 31579741 31719713 31579700
   31189697 30899727 30279830