Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...
Valid 260110Z - 260215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to progress east/southeast
this evening, with a few more instances of large hail and/or
damaging winds possible. However, the overall threat should further
wane over the next few hours. Downstream watch issuance is not
anticipated but trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Recent regional WSR-88D data indicate the overall
organization of a pair of severe storms has trended downward over
the last hour or so. Reflectivity data have suggested a transition
to a more diffuse cluster mode, versus the previous
southeastward-propagating supercell/bowing structures. This trend is
likely to continue, as storms move into an environment characterized
by increasing convective inhibition. Furthermore, warm-advection
related cells ahead of the main cores are likely stabilizing the
downstream environment further. As such, downstream watch issuance
is not anticipated as storms approach the southeastern extent of
Watch 267. However, a few cores could occasionally intensify over
the next 2-3 hours, with large hail and damaging winds remaining
possible (as evidenced by upshear propagation/development over
southeastern Gove County recently).
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38580050 39370017 39609897 39349816 38489835 38039949