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Mesoscale Discussion 842
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1014 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA / FAR E TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301514Z - 301645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK INITIALLY NEAR THE SABINE
   RIVER WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP EWD WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NRN LA
   THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  WHILE A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...IF AN ACCELERATION IN THE TSTM
   LINE OCCURS AND THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS TO INCREASE...THEN A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCING GUST
   FRONT FROM I-20 NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER SWWD INTO THE SERN TX WITH A
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SHV EWD TO THE IMMEDIATE S
   OF WEAK TSTM ACTIVITY OVER FAR NRN LA.  A MCV ANALYZED OVER N-CNTRL
   TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX REGION TODAY
   AND A PRESSURE RISE/WAKE LOW COUPLET LOCATED IN THE
   CONVECTIVE-STRATIFORM REGION OF THE MCS SIGNALS THE MATURE COLD POOL
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM GENERATION ON
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SABINE
   RIVER INTO NRN LA.

   MODIFYING THE 12Z SHV RAOB FOR A TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 80/LOWER 70S
   YIELDS MODERATE BUOYANCY /1900 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND THE NEAR
   ELIMINATION OF CINH.  SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25
   KT SHOULD AID IN STRONG MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS.  AS A RESULT...A FEW
   MORE ROBUST CORES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS AND THE POSSIBILITY
   OF ISOLD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE RENDERS A PROBABLE
   CORRIDOR OF A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK ACROSS NRN LA OVER THE NEXT
   2-5 HOURS.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32649433 33129288 33039159 32239100 31629143 31569249
               31539466 32329428 32649433 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2015
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