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Mesoscale Discussion 843
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0843
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Wyoming and adjacent northern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261711Z - 261915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to continue to
   initiate across the region through the 18-21Z time frame.  A few
   supercells are expected to eventually evolve, accompanied by at
   least some severe weather potential.  A watch is possible, though
   most probable east of the Laramie Mountains later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Destabilization has already become sufficient to
   support the initiation of thunderstorms near Rawlins.  This may be
   supported by orographic influences, but low-level warm advection
   focused along a west/east oriented baroclinic zone extending across
   the region (downstream of the slow moving closed low centered over
   southern Idaho) is probably contributing to more prominent forcing. 
   This seems likely to aid additional discrete storm development
   across the Interstate 80 corridor of south central Wyoming into the
   Laramie Mountains during the next few hours.

   With further boundary layer destabilization, in the presence of
   40-50+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow, the environment is expected
   to become increasing conducive to the evolution of a few supercells.
    The most appreciable severe weather potential may begin to develop
   along the eastern slopes of the Laramies, near/north of Cheyenne,
   during the 19-21Z time frame, as moistening easterly near surface
   flow and insolation begin to contribute to increasing boundary layer
   instability across this region.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/26/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41580881 42640630 41830416 41090461 41130614 41060855

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