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Mesoscale Discussion 843
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL IL / SWRN THRU CNTRL AND INTO
   N-CNTRL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301551Z - 301745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD
   DAMAGING WIND RISK.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING CU FIELD
   ACROSS THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY AMIDST AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AS TEMPS
   RISE THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
   THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM TO THE NE TOWARDS THE OH/MS
   RIVER CONFLUENCE BY MID AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD
   FROM SERN MO INTO S-CNTRL IL.  MARGINAL TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
   BUOYANCY /500-1200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZES FURTHER.  30-KT H5 FLOW ON THE SE-SIDE OF THE
   MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO SUPPORT ISOLD STRONG
   QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS BUT THE OVERALL MARGINAL SHEAR WILL YIELD A
   MULTICELL MODE.  NONETHELESS...THE MOIST AIRMASS COUPLED WITH
   MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW FIELDS WILL PROBABLY YIELD AT
   LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38068950 38728943 40638738 41058640 41108531 40748478
               40298472 38398675 37838775 37748891 38068950 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2015
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