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Mesoscale Discussion 844
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0844
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

   Areas affected...Colorado Front Range area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261743Z - 261945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development, including the
   evolution of a couple of supercells, appears likely across the Front
   Range area through 19-21Z.  A watch is possible, but seems more
   probable east of the Denver/Colorado Springs urban corridor later
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is already evident
   across the mountains of central Colorado.  This is occurring in
   response to destabilization and orographic influences, likely aided
   by forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching perturbation
   within the belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern
   Pacific.  With further insolation, destabilization probably will
   contribute to the continued development of scattered thunderstorm
   activity across the Front Range area through the 19-21Z time frame.

   The extent to which boundary layer destabilization becomes
   supportive of increasing severe weather potential across the
   populated area from Denver to Colorado Springs by this time remains
   a bit unclear.  However, deep layer shear appears favorable for
   supercell development, given sufficient destabilization,
   contributing to potential for at least the risk of marginally severe
   hail in strongest storms.

   As the large-scale support develops eastward, in the presence of
   increasing instability, severe weather potential with discrete
   supercells may increase more substantively east of the urban
   corridor later this afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/26/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38770479 39280486 39700523 40570561 40990414 39820325
               39040301 38370379 38770479 

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