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| Mesoscale Discussion 844 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND/MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 290026Z - 290230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS S/W OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MAY EXPAND/SPREAD INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF TX. WW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO -- THOUGH POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ATTM.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS JUST E OF THE TX BIG BEND -- OVER NRN MEXICO
ATTM. DOWNSTREAM...A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TX...BUT EVENING DRT RAOB
OBSERVED A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB -- WHICH HAS
THUS FAR SUPPRESSED ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO.
HIGH-RES MODELS FORECAST STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO TX
THIS EVENING...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. AS THE JET
INCREASES BENEATH MID-LEVEL SWLYS AROUND 30 KT...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HOWEVER...GIVEN CAPPING...THIS THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL -- AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA.
..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 05/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29740149 29760185 29830224 29700266 30480254 30980148
31140058 31199873 30249830 28979855 28680050 29130068
29740149
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