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Mesoscale Discussion 844
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301710Z - 301815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
   LIKELY PARALLEL THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION IN A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND A 48 KT
   WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED /1640Z/ AT KDLF.  GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE VIA STRONG HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   QLCS...AT LEAST A SUSTENANCE IF NOT INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ELY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A FETCH OF RICH MOISTURE /15-16 K PER
   KG LOWEST 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/ AND VEERING FLOW ATOP THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SERVE TO ENABLE STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AS
   THE QLCS MOVES SEWD INTO THE MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR.  AS A
   RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   A MESOVORTEX OR TWO COULD POSE A LOCALIZED ENHANCED WIND GUST/BRIEF
   TORNADO RISK AS WELL.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   29210084 29500007 28669882 27549843 26839939 29210084 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2015
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