Mesoscale Discussion 0844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017
Areas affected...Colorado Front Range area
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261743Z - 261945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development, including the
evolution of a couple of supercells, appears likely across the Front
Range area through 19-21Z. A watch is possible, but seems more
probable east of the Denver/Colorado Springs urban corridor later
DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is already evident
across the mountains of central Colorado. This is occurring in
response to destabilization and orographic influences, likely aided
by forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching perturbation
within the belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern
Pacific. With further insolation, destabilization probably will
contribute to the continued development of scattered thunderstorm
activity across the Front Range area through the 19-21Z time frame.
The extent to which boundary layer destabilization becomes
supportive of increasing severe weather potential across the
populated area from Denver to Colorado Springs by this time remains
a bit unclear. However, deep layer shear appears favorable for
supercell development, given sufficient destabilization,
contributing to potential for at least the risk of marginally severe
hail in strongest storms.
As the large-scale support develops eastward, in the presence of
increasing instability, severe weather potential with discrete
supercells may increase more substantively east of the urban
corridor later this afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38770479 39280486 39700523 40570561 40990414 39820325
39040301 38370379 38770479