|Mesoscale Discussion 845|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017
Areas affected...Central and eastern Illinois and far western
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261825Z - 262100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An area of convection over western Illinois will gradually
intensify while moving eastward into the discussion area. A WW will
be considered around/just after 20Z.
DISCUSSION...Convection over western Illinois is moving eastward
along and just north of a subjectively analyzed surface boundary
lifting slowly northward across central/eastern Illinois. Along and
south of this boundary, weak to moderate instability has developed
in response to warming surface temperatures (nearing 80F) and low to
mid-60s dewpoints. This warm front will continue to lift northward
slowly during the day, and the attendant increase of instability and
lift associated with an approaching remnant mesoscale convective
vortex over northwestern Illinois will foster scattered
thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A few
tornadoes will also be possible owing to backed surface flow in
vicinity of the lifting warm front/surface boundary especially if
convection can maintain a favorable (cellular) storm mode.
Convective trends will be monitored for a possible WW issuance
around or just after 20Z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40718928 40878886 40988838 41028772 41028729 40938658
40728617 40268594 39758607 39428651 39398725 39398771
39518852 39678924 39838962 40198968 40418956 40718928
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