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Mesoscale Discussion 845
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301840Z - 302015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z
   WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. INCREASING
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z...AND WHILE A WATCH IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 MI
   W OF CAR AT 1830Z...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN
   ME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   TO NEAR 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...AND BY LATE
   AFTN MLCAPE WILL AVERAGE 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
   QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL RESULT IN AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   TSTMS...THOUGH IN THE SHORT TERM STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED. BEYOND 20Z...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO GREATER
   COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
   SVR TSTM COVERAGE...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   47406916 47246906 47176891 47296851 47326822 47066783
               46006778 45186933 45087027 45327059 45677045 45937027
               46197024 46387005 46726996 47406916 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2015
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