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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...
VALID 092352Z - 100045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289
CONTINUES.
TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THIS EVENING.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S/ COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TX HAS RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF TSTMS DEVELOPING SINCE 2230Z
OVER GILLESPIE/LLANO COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONGER AND MORE DISCERNABLE UPPER FORCING. CURRENT
THINKING SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK EWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WITH A WEAKENING
TREND IN STORM INTENSITY TOWARD 03Z AS THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING
STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..PETERS.. 05/09/2008
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
29110012 29630048 30080024 30609960 30919863 30989789
30749726 30359669 29819663 29239666 28959704 28659784
28669816 29129849
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