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Mesoscale Discussion 846
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID...MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302000Z - 302200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS TSTMS OVER CENTRAL MT
   NEAR/E OF LWT...AND ACROSS THE BITTERROOT RANGE ON THE MT/ID BORDER.
   DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS
   AND DIURNAL HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN A WEAKLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
   LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH NRN ID AND CENTRAL MT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WITH A
   RISK FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF THIS AFTN. 

   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
   THREAT.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...OTX...

   LAT...LON   48971697 48971366 48961160 48690845 46890585 45200588
               45110828 45070986 45551283 46901579 47531696 48971697 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2015
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