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Mesoscale Discussion 847
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0914 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 060214Z - 060445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CELLS ARE FORMING NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NERN
   OK AND JUST N OF THE FRONT INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. VERY STRONG
   INSTABILITY EXISTS IN THIS CORRIDOR...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
   INCREASED TO OVER 1.50 INCHES. THE 00Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED 4000 J/KG
   MLCAPE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT FOR LONG LIVED HAIL
   STORMS. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING HAS NEARLY ERODED THE
   CAP. 

   ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
   STORMS AND OVER TIME COULD RESULT IN SEVERE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SUCH INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36369505 36419606 36379729 36429803 36699834 36979807
               37029709 37029564 37059437 36959356 36829321 36529305
               36319309 36229333 36329417 36369505 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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