MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / LARGE PART OF WRN WV / EXTREME SERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 161846Z - 161945Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE-UPPER OH
   RIVER VALLEY.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE MIDDLE-UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN PARTS OF
   CNTRL KY.  18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE STORMS OVER THE WV/SERN
   OH REGION HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /BELOW
   1000 J/KG MLCAPE/ WHEREAS AREAS FURTHER SW OVER SRN KY ARE
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE /UP TO 2500 J/KG MLCAPE/ WHEN MODIFYING 12Z BNA
   RAOB FOR 18Z SURFACE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  STRONGER DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN AREAS FURTHER N IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE GLANCING REGION.  AS A RESULT...THE
   BEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND CORRESPONDING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
   LIKELY BE FURTHER N IN WV AND PERHAPS FAR ERN KY.  MULTICELLULAR
   STORM MODE WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
   BEING MAINLY CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WINDS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   LAT...LON   36798615 37878419 38618278 39168151 39478076 39347973
               38837983 37968108 37188232 36858311 36628435 36798615