|Mesoscale Discussion 848|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017
Areas affected...South-central/southeast Wyoming...southwest
Nebraska Panhandle...eastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...
Valid 262314Z - 270115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms producing large hail,
damaging winds, and possibly a tornado will continue into the early
evening with a tendency for storms to increase somewhat in coverage
with time. A downstream watch will likely be needed to the east of
the watch by 00Z.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms were in progress
at 23Z/1700 MDT across the watch area from the southwest Nebraska
Panhandle south across eastern Colorado. The severe threat will
continue through the early evening given 40-50 kts of effective
shear and around 1000-locally 2000 j/kg of MLCAPE and steep
mid-level lapse rates. Some strengthening of the surface winds have
occurred across eastern Colorado over the past couple of hours, and
thus some tornado threat will exist with favorable low-level shear.
As the low-level jet intensifies to 40-45 kts this evening, storms
should tend to develop into one or two clusters with a continued
severe wind and hail risk. Given current motion, storms should
approach the eastern edge of WW 268 prior to 00Z and a new severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 00Z across western
Kansas and southwest Nebraska.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40760492 41640399 41800296 41650169 40930121 39900059
38040050 37280082 37060171 37120239 37370350 38040432
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