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Mesoscale Discussion 849
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

   Areas affected...East-central IL...Central into southeast IN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 269...

   Valid 262330Z - 270100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a
   tornado continues across valid portion of Tornado Watch 269. A
   downstream severe thunderstorm watch is possible for
   central/southeast IN and perhaps southwest OH.

   DISCUSSION...At 2330Z, a thunderstorm cluster with an embedded
   intense supercell is moving into west-central IN. In the short term,
   the threat for large hail and damaging wind will continue with this
   cluster, with at least some tornado threat associated with the
   long-lived mesocyclone currently moving into Warren and Fountain
   counties in Indiana.  

   The downstream airmass across central IN is not as moist and
   unstable as areas further west, but steep midlevel lapse rates and
   ascent attendant to the MCV that initiated this cluster will likely
   result in maintenance of the convective system for the next few
   hours. The tornado threat will tend to diminish with time as the
   environment for surface-based convection becomes more hostile, but
   some hail and wind threat may persist into this evening into
   central/eastern IN and perhaps southwest OH. 

   Depending on convective trends over the next hour, downstream severe
   thunderstorm issuance is possible. Local extension of WW 269 is also
   possible if the threat primarily appears to be in the short term.
   Meanwhile, redevelopment north of the trailing outflow cannot be
   ruled out across portions of central IL, though this risk will
   decrease with time this evening.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/26/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40378879 40518789 40468661 40238561 39908473 39258473
               39058566 39078659 39168739 39268826 39488855 39668878
               39978895 40378879 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2017
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