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Mesoscale Discussion 849
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 060617Z - 060745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND
   SHOULD MOVE EWD WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE.  RISK FOR HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ATTM IN A W TO E BAND ALONG
   THE AMA LATITUDE...WITH RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF A FEW CELLS TO
   SEVERE LEVELS /A RECENT GUST OF 69 MPH HAS BEEN REPORTED/.  THE
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST N OF THE W-E SURFACE FRONT...AND
   WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF THE FRONT BENEATH 35 TO 45 KT WLYS AT
   MID LEVELS...EWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO A FAVORABLY
   UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS OK /IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG CAPE
   ABOVE THE CAPPING LAYER/ IS EXPECTED.

   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT INTENSE/ROTATING STORMS...WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS.  THUS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS IS EVIDENT IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...WITH DEGREE OF THIS
   THREAT MODULATED BY DEGREE OF LINEAR ORGANIZATION STORMS CAN
   ACQUIRE.

   ..GOSS/HART.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35060077 35990133 36499968 35959616 34619626 34049715
               34600000 35060077 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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