|
| Mesoscale Discussion 849 |
|
< Previous MD
Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NRN WV/MUCH OF PA/WRN AND CENTRAL NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311...
VALID 161955Z - 162100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311
CONTINUES.
PRIMARY THREAT AREAS WITHIN WW 311 SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NRN PA INTO
NY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL PA
/MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY TENDS TO DECREASE
WITH NWD EXTENT INTO NY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASES INTO THIS
REGION AND SUPPORTS STORM ORGANIZATION AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
PROGRESSES ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTH CENTRAL PA. REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATED A FEW STORMS WITH DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS /E.G. STORM
IN SCHUYLER COUNTY NY/ HAVING A TENDENCY TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION...GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-35 KT ACROSS WW 311
SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT WITH STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS.
A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED ACROSS NERN/ERN NY...
DOWNSTREAM OF WW 311...SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT STORMS FROM
MAINTAINING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO THESE AREAS OF NY AND
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SW INTO SWRN
PA...WEAKER INSTABILITY IS TENDING TO LIMIT STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
..PETERS.. 05/16/2009
ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
LAT...LON 43777453 41997499 39797606 39697812 39618046 40997984
42127901 42487866 42977765 43417678 43647629 43777453
|
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|