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Mesoscale Discussion 849
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302248Z - 310015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MOSTLY STRONG
   WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES
   NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WARM SECTOR FROM
   CNTRL THROUGH NERN NY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH
   ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS OVER NEW YORK REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
   STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND ARE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST /1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE SUPPORTIVE OF
   MULTICELLS. STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS THEY
   DEVELOP EWD...BUT OCCASIONAL LINE SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR. FARTHER NE
   ACROSS WRN AND NRN MAINE...WIND PROFILES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH
   40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS REGION IS WEAK BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
   BELOW 1000 J/KG AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HAS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CHARACTER OF
   CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN MAINE. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE THE SFC
   LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   47086952 47266842 47036779 46396814 45436931 44127156
               42127688 44637540 44947368 45047154 45687046 47086952 

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Page last modified: May 31, 2015
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