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Mesoscale Discussion 852
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0952 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061452Z - 061545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS AR
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF EXPANDING MCS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   APPEARS WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
   MORNING HAS ORGANIZED INTO AN MCS OVER ERN OK.  MORE RECENTLY...MCV
   APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING JUST NORTH OF MLC.  LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST
   CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ADVANCING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT SUGGESTING
   THE SQUALL LINE COULD BE NEAR LIT BY 18-19Z AND OVER ERN AR BY 21Z. 
   AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DOWNSTREAM...ADDITIONAL PRE-SQUALL LINE
   DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NOTED AS CAP WEAKENS.  SUFFICIENT WLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THIS MCS TO SURVIVE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING AND
   NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35809457 35179088 33229141 33919516 35809457 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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