MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 200444Z - 200645Z
   
   STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE BAND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO OVER
   E-CNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
   BE NECESSARY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF MAINTAINING
   INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION AS THEY DEVELOP INLAND.
   
   VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OFF THE SWRN FL COAST IS DRIFTING
   SLOWLY WWD. AN OUTER CONVERGENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
   HAS INTENSIFIED OFF THE E CNTRL FL COAST AND EXTENDS INLAND THROUGH
   CAPE CANAVERAL TO ORLANDO. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BAND IS
   MOVING NWWD...BUT TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THEY
   MOVE INLAND WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATES SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
   PENINSULA WITH 500-1000 MUCAPE. FARTHER NORTH FROM CNTRL THROUGH NRN
   FL...INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED /BELOW 500 J/KG/ AND LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATE VERY FEW STRIKES INLAND. A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET HAS
   DEVELOPED ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF LOW ACROSS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT
   DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FARTHER SOUTH. A
   NARROW CORRIDOR MAY EXIST NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BAND WHERE LARGER 0-1
   KM HODOGRAPHS OVERLAP SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHALLOW
   STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER...MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN A VERY LOCALIZED
   THREAT INLAND FROM THE COAST.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/20/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   28208037 28268125 28198168 28488207 28968176 28818064
               28208037