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Mesoscale Discussion 852
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...EXTREME SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312050Z - 312245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   CONSIDERED UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN CO INTO
   WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S BENEATH STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS
   RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   STORM STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE LACK OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION AND A RATHER UNFAVORABLE SFC
   PATTERN...WITH LIMITED UPSLOPE FLOW AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE AT
   LOW-LEVELS. 

   DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS
   LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK
   SFC LOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY CO AND A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE
   ZONE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. IN
   ADDITION...ONGOING STORMS EMERGING OUT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY
   BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...WW ISSUANCE IS
   CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..DEAN/MEAD.. 05/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38910413 39860462 40850406 40900317 40900236 39920092
               38850070 37830135 37250158 37090223 37290388 38070483
               38910413 

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Page last modified: May 31, 2015
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