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Mesoscale Discussion 853
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0523 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IDAHO...SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
   MONTANA...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN WYOMING

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312223Z - 010000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER NORTHEASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...WITH ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
   GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NORTHEASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THE STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...WITH 30-40 KNOT WLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. 30-35F DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INVERTED V-PROFILES
   INDICATED IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE DOWNBURST
   POTENTIAL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND INTO
   SOUTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTIONS
   REMAIN REGARDING STORM COVERAGE GIVEN MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT
   PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY
   SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..COOK/THOMPSON.. 05/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   46141556 46451509 46781395 47031253 47231069 47110953
               46910873 46400811 45700792 45150831 44720922 44581010
               44471163 44351281 44271351 44291422 44501487 44831531
               45101568 45651579 45841581 46141556 

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