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Mesoscale Discussion 853
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...SRN TN...ERN
   AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061622Z - 061745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

   DISCUSSION...RICH DEEP MOISTURE SAMPLED BY THE 12Z JAN...BMX...AND
   FFC RAOBS EXISTS S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED WNW/ESE THROUGH
   THE MID-SOUTH REGION -- DRAWN N OF MEMPHIS METRO. SFC OBS REFLECT A
   MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE
   REGION...PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING
   INTO HIGH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7
   INCHES PER GPS DATA -- AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THIS IS FOSTERING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG BUOYANCY...WITH MODIFICATIONS TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED RAOBS SUGGESTING MLCAPE ALREADY AROUND 2000-3500 J/KG
   ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED AS PBL CIRCULATIONS DIURNALLY
   GROW...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM FROM THE ASCENDING
   BRANCHES OF THESE CIRCULATIONS AND INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS ENTERING NRN AL MAY ALSO INTENSIFY
   AS THEY TRACK SEWD TOWARD NWRN GA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIFT
   ACCOMPANYING RESIDUAL CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO AN UPSTREAM MCS
   CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN AR MAY ALSO BREED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
   NUMEROUS STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BUOYANCY IN PLACE...AND PRESENCE OF
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR...SUSTAINED INTENSE MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY
   OCCUR...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   ..COHEN/DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33018913 33619087 34809109 35409068 35468918 35078600
               34448437 33158461 32938699 33018913 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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