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Mesoscale Discussion 853
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0853
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1036 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Oklahoma...northwest
   Arkansas...southwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 270336Z - 270430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development over east-central
   Oklahoma may pose a risk for severe hail and wind, and perhaps a
   tornado. It remains unclear to what extent additional development
   will occur, but a watch would likely be needed for more than
   isolated development. Trends continue to be monitored closely.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of strong thunderstorms have developed along a
   warm front across east-central Oklahoma as of 0325z. The storms were
   located within a strongly unstable environment with surface-based
   CAPE of around 3500 j/kg. This degree of instability coupled with
   45-50 kts of effective shear would result in a risk for large hail
   and damaging winds, and perhaps even a tornado given proximity to
   the warm front and 200 m2/s2 of low-level SRH. There are, however,
   concerns regarding storm longevity and coverage given the presence
   of a pronounced cap on the 00Z Norman OK and Little Rock AR
   soundings, with a noticeably weaker cap on the 00Z Springfield MO
   sounding. Should confidence increase in greater storm coverage then
   a watch would be possible.

   ..Bunting/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36269545 36359528 36499447 36359380 36129365 35729373
               35559387 35019449 34719504 34899560 35269591 35659608

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