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Mesoscale Discussion 854
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...SERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061709Z - 061945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WITH THE RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR STORMS. WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER COASTAL SRN NC
   INVOF A FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED FROM S OF WILMINGTON NC WWD TO NEAR
   COLUMBIA SC. THE AIR MASS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS 
   MOIST -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F -- AND
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIFT AIDED BY FRONTAL ASCENT AND SEA
   BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
   PER MODIFIED CHS 12Z RAOB SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MAY EXIST FOR
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   HOWEVER...WITH VWPS INDICATING AOB 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   TROPOSPHERE...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE...
   POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING OFF THE
   SC COAST PER VIS IMAGERY...AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...MAY
   BE DELETERIOUS TO THE SUPPORT OF A GREATER SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   33628103 34917921 34547767 33867802 32967960 32628069
               33628103 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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