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Mesoscale Discussion 854
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND PARTS OF
   THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 312337Z - 010030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
   ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH A
   WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...TRENDS ARE
   CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
   HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KNOT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SUSTAIN THESE STORMS...WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TWO-INCH
   DIAMETER HAIL REPORTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SLY LOW
   LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 30 KNOT NLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE
   ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
   MAY CONGEAL INTO A SWD-MOVING COMPLEX WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..COOK/THOMPSON.. 05/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36500178 36470235 36530289 37160325 37870351 38740371
               39190350 39530299 39750229 39800161 39560110 38960067
               38080053 36950083 36570150 36500178 

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