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Mesoscale Discussion 854
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest and northcentral Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271...

   Valid 270445Z - 270645Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues, and trends are being
   monitored for the possibility of a downstream watch.

   DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds and large
   continue across northwest Kansas between Goodland and Hill City at
   0445z. Latest mesoanalysis reveals that these storms remain within a
   region of warm advection associated with a 30-40 kt low-level jet
   and along a gradient in elevated instability.  A continued eastward
   motion is expected, which would put the easternmost storm on the 
   edge of the watch by 06z.  Although latest short-term guidance
   suggests that this area of storms may shift east of the strongest
   warm advection with time, increasing mesoscale organization of the
   complex and modest elevated instability points to a continuing
   severe threat into north-central/central Kansas.  As a result, this
   area is being monitored for the possibility of a downstream watch
   prior to 06z.

   ..Bunting/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39920187 39890078 39949950 39949846 39209844 38869870
               38749959 38720002 38650057 38540087 38540131 38570167
               39410196 39920187 

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