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Mesoscale Discussion 856
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0856
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

   Valid 270704Z - 270900Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272

   SUMMARY...A small cluster of strong/locally severe storms continues
   across the Ozarks vicinity, where large hail and locally damaging
   winds remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of strong
   storms crossing parts of southwest MO and adjacent northern AR, with
   the strongest cell -- a severe storm which has recently produced 2"
   hail -- now crossing Boone County AR just south of the MO/AR border.

   The storms are ongoing within a favorable thermodynamic environment,
   near the nose of a subtle 30 to 35 kt low-level jet per recent VWP
   data from area radars.  Surface analysis reveals a weak mesolow over
   northeast OK, with a mesoscale warm front extending east-northeast
   into northwest AR/southwest MO -- i.e. across the region where
   storms are ongoing.  With this boundary -- and the aforementioned
   low-level jet -- providing a source of low-level ascent, and with
   the kinematic and thermodynamic environment supportive of
   organized/rotating updrafts, local severe risk will likely continue
   across this area over the next several hours.

   ..Goss.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35779453 36049468 36619446 36929404 37119243 37259117
               36049058 35639154 35779453 

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