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Mesoscale Discussion 856
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 011946Z - 012115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM
   PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING OVER WRN THROUGH CNTRL
   MT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 F.
   SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS TO SUPPORT UPPER 40S TO NEAR
   50F SFC DEWPOINTS WITHIN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER CNTRL MT.
   STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
   WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE
   UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
   TO 30-40 KT AS A MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD SWRN MT. THUS
   SOME STORMS MAY ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH /ALONG WITH
   7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/ SHOULD
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL ALSO
   AUGMENT THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE OFF
   THE MOUNTAINS.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45061050 45061211 45961217 46741253 47601257 47701032
               47560762 46050699 45250850 45061050 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2015
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