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Mesoscale Discussion 856
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061756Z - 062000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON EAST OF
   THE FRONT RANGE.  WW WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED BY 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS NOTED ACROSS
   COLORADO...BOTH AT HIGHER AND LOWER ELEVATIONS.  STEEPEST LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES EXTEND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE SFC-3KM VALUES ARE
   APPROACHING 9 C/KM.  CU FIELD IS DEEPENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE SHORTLY.  WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD INGEST MORE MOIST/BUOYANT
   AIRMASS.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS DECIDEDLY SLY...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE OVER THE PLAINS.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   36990497 41000497 40980259 37000261 36990497 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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