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Mesoscale Discussion 857
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE TO SCNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061811Z - 062015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
   PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG A WEAK
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KT.  LATEST
   TRENDS SUGGEST MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DRIFT/PROPAGATE
   NEWD ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH FRONTAL INTERACTION EXPECTED
   ACROSS SD.  WDSSII MESH DATA SUGGESTS HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLF BALL
   SIZE IS NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41350383 43740130 43910011 43080005 41000248 41350383 

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