MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN AL...EXTREME SERN MS AND THE WRN FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 230734Z - 230930Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
   TWO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SWRN
   AL...SERN MS THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED
   ABOUT 60 MILES OFF THE SWRN AL COAST. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
   CONVERGENCE BAND SITUATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WITH AN
   EMBEDDED MESO-LOW CIRCULATION ABOUT 15-20 MILES OFFSHORE IS MOVING
   NNWWD AT 10-15 KT. OTHER MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
   FARTHER EAST ALONG OUTER CONVERGENCE BANDS NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
   FL PANHANDLE. TREND HAS BEEN FOR HODOGRAPHS TO INCREASE IN SIZE AS
   SURFACE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT ELY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOP NWD. VWP
   DATA FROM MOBILE INDICATE 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM HELICITY BASED ON
   OBSERVED STORM MOTION...AND STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW OCCASIONAL
   UPDRAFT ROTATION. OVERALL TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHOW
   SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF
   WATERS CLOSER TO SHORE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
   THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
   INLAND SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND CONFINED
   TO COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/23/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   30368752 30288857 30758817 30668648 30358581 30108594
               30288655 30368752