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Mesoscale Discussion 857
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0857
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...North-central and northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...

   Valid 270835Z - 271030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273

   SUMMARY...Storms -- and local severe risk -- continue moving east
   across north-central Kansas.  New/downstream WW may be needed,
   though some uncertainty exists.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms
   crossing parts of north-central Kansas, with the strongest activity
   now preparing to enter western parts of Russell and Barton counties.
   While ample -- though elevated -- downstream instability appears to
   exist, VWP data continues to suggest that the strongest portion of
   the LLJ (ssely at 40 to 50 kt) remains across western Kansas.  With
   low-level inflow much weaker (around 20 kt from the southeast)
   across central and eastern Kansas, some uncertainty with respect to
   downstream severe risk is evident, as storms eventually vacate WW
   273.  Along these lines, the latest runs of the NCEP and ESRL HRRR
   both suggest that storms will weaken with time.  Still, given the
   fairly well-organized/intense character of the existing cluster of
   storms, we will continue to monitor trends over the next hour or so
   with respect to the need for downstream WW issuance.

   ..Goss.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38500034 39879922 39639726 39769589 38989553 38309577

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