Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Areas affected...North-central and northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...
Valid 270835Z - 271030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273
SUMMARY...Storms -- and local severe risk -- continue moving east
across north-central Kansas. New/downstream WW may be needed,
though some uncertainty exists.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms
crossing parts of north-central Kansas, with the strongest activity
now preparing to enter western parts of Russell and Barton counties.
While ample -- though elevated -- downstream instability appears to
exist, VWP data continues to suggest that the strongest portion of
the LLJ (ssely at 40 to 50 kt) remains across western Kansas. With
low-level inflow much weaker (around 20 kt from the southeast)
across central and eastern Kansas, some uncertainty with respect to
downstream severe risk is evident, as storms eventually vacate WW
273. Along these lines, the latest runs of the NCEP and ESRL HRRR
both suggest that storms will weaken with time. Still, given the
fairly well-organized/intense character of the existing cluster of
storms, we will continue to monitor trends over the next hour or so
with respect to the need for downstream WW issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38500034 39879922 39639726 39769589 38989553 38309577