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Mesoscale Discussion 857
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT THROUGH WRN SD...WRN ND AND NERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012041Z - 012245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING ERN MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NERN
   WY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHERE AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
   IS INDICATED BY LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
   CUMULUS FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NERN MT AS WELL AS
   ALONG A LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN ND AS WELL AS THE BLACK HILLS OF SD.
   DESPITE WEAK FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING...ONLY A MODEST CAP IS IN PLACE THAT HAS BEEN FURTHER
   WEAKENED BY STRONG SFC HEATING AND MIXING AS EVIDENCED ON THE
   GLASGOW SPECIAL 19Z RAOB. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE BY 22Z AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR.
   VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY
   SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   NRN PLAINS INTO THE EARLY-MIDDLE EVENING...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO
   CLUSTERS SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   43360456 47170447 48840443 48210209 43890291 43360456 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2015
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