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Mesoscale Discussion 858
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KS...NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061829Z - 062100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
   RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY WARRANT WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS ANALYZED OVER THE AREA IN THE
   WAKE OF MULTIPLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DURING PRECEDING DAYS.
   RESIDUAL CONFLUENCE AXES ARE ANALYZED WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTATIONS OVER
   PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AND SWRN KS...WITH THE SRN-MOST OF THESE
   FEATURES SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION FROM
   GRANT COUNTY TO COMANCHE COUNTY KS. OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES
   COVER THE AREA...WHERE ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF POTENTIAL
   BUOYANCY IS LIKELY MITIGATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE -- E.G. AROUND 8 C/KM IN THE
   H7-H5 LAYER PER DDC 12Z RAOB -- AMIDST MODESTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL 
   MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. 

   AS SUCH...THERE IS STILL CONCERN FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 12-HOUR REDUCTIONS OF H7
   CAPPING PER DDC AND OUN RAOBS...AND ASCENT POSSIBLY RELATED TO
   HIGH-LEVEL TRANSVERSE BANDING NOTED IN CLOUD STRUCTURES EMERGING
   OVER THE SRN PLAINS/GEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT AT THE NOSE OF AN UPPER
   JET. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 55-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
   HOWEVER...IF SFC CONDITIONS MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY OWING TO POCKETS OF
   INSOLATION AND/OR LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH OCCURS...DMGG
   WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. REGARDLESS...THERE STILL REMAINS
   LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
   OWING TO THE EARLIER OVERTURNING AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37380186 38280071 38209840 37229715 36229816 36330066
               37380186 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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