MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY/PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 231649Z - 231745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME.
   MARGINAL THREATS OF HAIL/WIND CAN BE ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLD SEVERE
   POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   
   A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING WSW FROM NEAR KPIT TO ENE TO KAVP HAS
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED HEATING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AS A STRATUS LAYER
   LINGERS. TO THE N AND S OF THIS BAND WHERE GREATER HEATING IS
   OCCURRING...CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...AMPLE HEATING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE REMAINING
   CINH...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY PER ADJUSTED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND AMPLE
   MOISTURE SHOWN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WV IMAGERY
   INDICATES VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO TRIGGER A MORE ORGANIZED
   THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE WELL REMOVED
   FROM INFLUENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/FAVORABLE SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE...AS GREATER INSTABILITY LIES TO THE N AND S.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN 30 TO 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...PULSE STORMS AND BRIEF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY BE
   CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
   STORMS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. GIVEN OVERALL DISORGANIZED/MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/23/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   
   LAT...LON   40027689 39697792 39627901 40027917 40767854 42147736
               42617668 42917596 42557524 41687537 40957582 40027689