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Mesoscale Discussion 859
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0859
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...far
   southwest Kentucky...western Tennessee...and northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

   Valid 271112Z - 271315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue moving across far
   southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas toward the Mississippi
   River.  large hail and locally damaging winds remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of strong/severe
   storms crossing the northeast AR and adjacent far southeast MO areas
   at this time, through an amply unstable/sufficiently sheared
   environment with respect to support for organized convection. 
   Storms remain coincident with an upper-level disturbance evident
   within water vapor imagery, but a gradually weakening low-level jet
   is noted, which -- combined with weaker downstream instability with
   eastward extent across western Missouri -- suggests that severe risk
   may gradually diminish beginning in the next couple of hours. 
   However, should storms manage to survive until mid-morning, the
   onset of diurnal destabilization could eventually allow
   re-intensification of the MCS to occur -- a scenario hinted at by
   the latest HRRR runs.  In the mean time, local risk for damaging
   winds and large hail continues.

   ..Goss.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35369105 35749121 36649018 36708958 36408801 35178783
               34448804 34718968 35369105 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2017
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