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Mesoscale Discussion 859
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061851Z - 062045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED...
   TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS ARE FOSTERING TOWERING CU AND ISOLATED
   DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY ENSUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
   FARTHER S LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED BENEATH
   COMPARATIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
   STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE STEERED ONTO THE
   ADJACENT PLAINS...WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S-AROUND 60F SFC DEWPOINTS.
   THIS MODESTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIES BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WHICH WILL HAVE
   THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS.

   STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AMIDST 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS COULD
   FOSTER INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WINDS. A
   RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST INVOF/E OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ANALYZED FROM E OF RATON NM TO N OF PLAINVIEW TX. INTO THE
   EVENING...AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS COULD FOSTER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
   ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH THE
   MAIN SVR RISK TRANSITIONING TO SVR WINDS.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36120553 36860473 36630237 34350266 33910538 34730575
               36120553 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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