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Mesoscale Discussion 860
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN GA...WRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061921Z - 062145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
   COULD WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...REGENERATIVE CONVECTION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF COLD
   POOLS SPREADING E OF UPSTREAM WW 240 AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC
   DEWPOINTS...SBCAPE AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WITH THIS AREA BEING ON THE ERN
   FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
   AOB 25 KT WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM EXHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL
   ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IN MANY
   AREAS AND WATER LOADING PROCESSES WILL FOSTER STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD BE GREATER
   IF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UPWARD BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   31898387 34268401 34628278 33258155 31878167 31898387 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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