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Mesoscale Discussion 861
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TN...NORTHERN GA...NORTHERN SC...WESTERN
   NC...SOUTHWEST VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021646Z - 021915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
   EASTERN TN INTO WESTERN NC AND ADJACENT REGIONS.  A FEW STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED TODAY.  A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   FORMING OVER EAST TN INTO WESTERN NC.  THIS IS BENEATH AND JUST EAST
   OF AN  UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CSV.  RATHER COOL MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /-13 TO -14 AT 500MB/ COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   60S AND SEVERAL HOURS OF MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE
   RESULTED IN CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
   WEAK...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN SOME
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A FEW STRONGER CORES.  RELATIVELY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN HAIL IN THE STRONGER
   STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

   ..HART/MEAD.. 06/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...
   HUN...

   LAT...LON   35788516 36378432 36988233 37207966 36607873 35987943
               35138121 34308280 34038468 34748560 35788516 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2015
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