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Mesoscale Discussion 862
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL/GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 062006Z - 062200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SWD
   FROM WW 240. THIS COULD WARRANT SWD EXTENSION OF THE ONGOING WW...OR
   POSSIBLY THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW.

   DISCUSSION...AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS TO THE S OF
   INTERSTATE 20 -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F -- IS SUPPORTING
   AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. INCREASING-COVERAGE CONVECTION
   FARTHER N WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WHILE
   SOME NLY COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FOSTERS A SWD PROGRESSION
   OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THE PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT OF 4-7-KM-AGL FLOW
   PER BMX VWP MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER
   DEEP ASCENT FAVORING MORE ROBUST UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THE
   OVERALL SVR RISK MAY BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32318401 31868323 31328349 31538611 31949099 32809132
               32708714 32318401 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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