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Mesoscale Discussion 862
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0862
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0959 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Southern/eastern Kansas into the Missouri
   Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271459Z - 271700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least one, if not several, severe weather watches are
   likely today across the area.  At the present time, this seems most
   probable later this afternoon, rather than early.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to develop across and
   northeast of portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, in
   association with an initial weak impulse within the mid-latitude
   westerlies, which is expected to progress toward the Upper Midwest
   through mid to late afternoon.  It appears that this arcing band
   will progress through a narrow corridor of relatively moist air
   ahead of it, before appreciable heating and destabilization can take
   place.  And northeast of the Des Moines IA/Kirksville Mo areas, near
   surface inflow is likely to become drier and more stable, which
   appears to limit severe weather potential.

   In the wake of this lead activity, an area of enhanced lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection is also maintaining convective
   development across parts of east central and northeast Kansas, on
   the northern periphery of a plume of very warm, elevated mixed layer
   air.  This forcing is expected to continue to develop southeastward,
   near and to the west through south of Kansas City into the 18-21Z
   time.   In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively
   strong shear, and sizable CAPE even for elevated moist parcels, the
   risk for at least severe hail may not be negligible, and could
   possibly increase a bit through early afternoon.  However, rapid
   substantive intensification seems likely to await weakening of
   inhibition for moist boundary layer parcels, and this seems most
   probable southeast of the Kansas City metro into the Missouri Ozarks
   later this afternoon.

   Some recent new convective development is ongoing across parts of
   the Missouri Ozarks, near the intersection of an outflow boundary
   left by prior convection, and an apparent southeastward advancing
   gravity wave.  Similar to convection to the northwest, this activity
   may persist and continue to slowly increase while developing
   southeastward along the retreating outflow boundary across southern
   Missouri.  But significant rapid increase accompanied by more
   prominent severe weather potential will probably require
   considerable further downstream boundary layer heating and

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37529811 38289688 38779610 39099468 39599391 40049374
               39419277 37879047 36679142 36709384 36909525 36919750

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