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Mesoscale Discussion 862
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...WRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021837Z - 021930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
   SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NEB
   BY EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN.
    WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EAST OF CPR TO WEST OF
   CYS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING IN A REGION OF MODERATELY STRONG
   WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT /500MB WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS/...AND ALONG THE
   WEST EDGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
   INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY BUILD EASTWARD INTO A
   REGION WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.  LATEST
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NEB
   PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN SD...WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY.  CAM
   SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ROTATING STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
   THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A LOCALIZED RISK OF HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..HART/MEAD.. 06/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41100464 41920554 42780600 43570574 43880431 43440259
               42840175 42140133 41270152 40940236 40920405 41100464 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2015
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