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Mesoscale Discussion 863
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SE MT AND NE WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021853Z - 022030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
   SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD OFF OF HIGHER
   TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S ACROSS SE MT INTO
   NE WY TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   50S...MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WERE NOTED ON 18Z MESOANALYSIS.
   SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
   HEATING. ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
   IN SOME SUPERCELL OR BOWING LINE SEGMENT CHARACTERISTICS AS STORMS
   MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF BIL. SOME WEAK MIDLEVEL
   CAPPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING VORTICITY MAX FROM EARLIER THIS
   MORNING MAY SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY
   INITIALLY. BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AT
   LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
   STRENGTHENING INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SOME
   UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43830469 43910550 44090620 44490718 44850790 45580904
               45870944 46180963 46440948 46570921 46580884 46370806
               46160713 46060574 46050518 46020444 45860410 45460389
               45120388 44760386 44070403 43900435 43830469 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2015
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