Mesoscale Discussion 0864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Areas affected...Central and southern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 275...
Valid 271812Z - 271945Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 275 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential continues to increase,
particularly across parts of western/southern Missouri through the
19-21Z time frame. This includes the risk for tornadoes and very
large hail in at least a couple of supercells, before potentially
damaging wind gusts begin to become a more prominent threat.
DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm development is now well underway
across the lower Missouri Valley and Missouri Ozarks region,
generally focused within a broad/diffuse mid-level baroclinic zone,
to the north of the plume of warmer and more strongly capping
elevated mixed layer air emanating from the Mexican Plateau region.
A residual pocket of cooler and more stable boundary layer air (due
to early day cloud cover and precipitation) remains present across
much of south central Missouri, centered along the Interstate 44
between Springfield and St. Louis. It remains unclear, what impact
that this will have on longer term convective trends, particularly
storms now southeast of Kansas City. At least in the near term,
though, an evolving supercell on the southern flank of this evolving
cluster may pose a risk for tornadoes, in addition to very large
hail, near/west and southwest of Sedalia into the Missouri Ozarks
Otherwise, the evolving cluster of storms to the west of Springfield
appears to have longer term access to stronger instability, and may
become more prominent across and east of the Springfield area during
the next few hours. It appears possible that an evolving supercell
on the western flank of this activity could pose a risk for
tornadoes in the presence of modestly large low-level hodographs
near/north through east of Joplin, before upscale convective growth
results in a more substantive risk for potentially damaging wind
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39179469 39299374 38639130 38088986 36739010 36779163
36619435 37509546 39179469