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Mesoscale Discussion 864
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0864
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Central and southern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 275...

   Valid 271812Z - 271945Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 275 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential continues to increase,
   particularly across parts of western/southern Missouri through the
   19-21Z time frame.  This includes the risk for tornadoes and very
   large hail in at least a couple of supercells, before potentially
   damaging wind gusts begin to become a more prominent threat.

   DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm development is now well underway
   across the lower Missouri Valley and Missouri Ozarks region,
   generally focused within a broad/diffuse mid-level baroclinic zone,
   to the north of the plume of warmer and more strongly capping
   elevated mixed layer air emanating from the Mexican Plateau region. 
   A residual pocket of cooler and more stable boundary layer air (due
   to early day cloud cover and precipitation) remains present across
   much of south central Missouri, centered along the Interstate 44
   between Springfield and St. Louis.  It remains unclear, what impact
   that this will have on longer term convective trends, particularly
   storms now southeast of Kansas City.  At least in the near term,
   though, an evolving supercell on the southern flank of this evolving
   cluster may pose a risk for tornadoes, in addition to very large
   hail, near/west and southwest of Sedalia into the Missouri Ozarks
   through 20-21z.

   Otherwise, the evolving cluster of storms to the west of Springfield
   appears to have longer term access to stronger instability, and may
   become more prominent across and east of the Springfield area during
   the next few hours. It appears possible that an evolving supercell
   on the western flank of this activity could pose a risk for
   tornadoes in the presence of modestly large low-level hodographs
   near/north through east of Joplin, before upscale convective growth
   results in a more substantive risk for potentially damaging wind

   ..Kerr.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39179469 39299374 38639130 38088986 36739010 36779163
               36619435 37509546 39179469 

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