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Mesoscale Discussion 864
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021928Z - 022100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
   SOUTHEAST ND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEW OF THEM SUPERCELLULAR. 
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME RISK
   FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.  A WW IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER SIOUX COUNTY ND...SOUTH OF
   BIS.  THIS STORM IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND IN A REGION WHERE
   STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED MOST OF THE DAY.  AN INCREASING CU FIELD
   TO THE EAST OF THE STORM...COUPLED WITH CONSISTENT CAM
   GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOON OVER MORE OF
   SOUTHEAST ND.  A 19Z ABR RAOB CONTINUES TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL MID
   LEVEL CAPPING...WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD INTO SD AT
   LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW
   VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE
   STRONGER STORMS.  ALSO...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND PROXIMITY TO
   SURFACE LOW SUGGEST SOME RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..HART/MEAD.. 06/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46290116 47080024 47429798 47139647 46449593 45839662
               45659894 45700115 46290116 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2015
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