Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 865
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 865 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 062103Z - 062300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
   REGION...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A RESIDUAL COOL
   DOME OVER SWRN KS...CONTINUED SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
   NORTH...AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO THE W SUPPORTING
   UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN THE SVR
   RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH MODERATE DEEP SHEAR
   SAMPLED BY THE DDC VWP FEATURING NOTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
   LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AND...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...SVR
   HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH DMGG
   WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
   WHERE SFC HEATING HAS MODIFIED ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED
   AIR.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39750166 40320044 39769911 37669901 37159997 37390167
               39750166 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 06, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities