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Mesoscale Discussion 866
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062207Z - 070000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
   LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EVENING. HOWEVER...A WATCH
   IS UNLIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF SERN NM AND SWRN TX IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...AND WHERE STRONG
   HEATING HAS MIXED OUT THE CAPPING INVERSION. DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
   THE 50S ALONG WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND VEERING WIND PROFILES
   WITH HEIGHT ARE TEMPORARILY CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND. THE THREAT SHOULD
   GENERALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
   INCREASES. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY OVER-ACHIEVE IN A TEMPORAL
   SENSE DUE TO AN INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   30690402 31560416 32320445 33020498 33440530 33910503
               33940445 33630341 33340263 32750226 32120238 31410281
               30880315 30750359 30690402 

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