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Mesoscale Discussion 867
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0537 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL INTO SRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...

   VALID 062237Z - 070000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO
   INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MAINLY WEST THROUGH
   SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY...THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.  IT MAY NOT BE
   OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 240.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY
   APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NEAR A COUPLE OF INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES.  ONE OF THESE IS APPROACHING MONTGOMERY FROM THE
   NORTH...WHILE MORE OR LESS QUASI-STATIONARY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
   TUSCALOOSA AREA...WHILE THE OTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY SEGMENT OF THE FORMER BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE THE
   FOCUS FOR CONTINUING UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
   PROPAGATION THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...IN THE PRESENCE OF 20-30
   KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT...WITH
   TIME...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR STRONG
   DOWNBURSTS.  CONSOLIDATING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOLS MAY ALSO
   BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY
   PROPAGATES INTO AREAS WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY...WHERE
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32928710 32428607 32388584 31428675 32378799 32568768
               32928710 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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