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Mesoscale Discussion 867
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0867
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern CO...southwestern KS...far
   northeastern NM...and the OK Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271945Z - 272145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds
   should develop this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Increasing large-scale ascent associated with a
   shortwave trough moving over the central Rockies along with
   low-level easterly to northeasterly upslope flow is encouraging
   convective development across the higher terrain of central CO as of
   1930Z. Visible satellite imagery shows a post-frontal stratus deck
   across southeastern CO slowly eroding from west to east as diurnal
   heating steepens low-level lapse rates and boundary layer becomes
   well mixed. This trend is expected to continue for the remainder of
   the afternoon across the lower terrain of southeastern CO into
   western KS and the OK Panhandle. MLCAPE should increase into the
   500-1500 J/kg range across this region over the next several hours
   owing mainly to steep mid-level lapse rates. A strongly veering wind
   profile per recent VWPs from PUX is resulting in 40-50 kt of
   effective bulk shear. Isolated to scattered supercells with an
   attendant large hail and damaging wind threat should move
   southeastward from the higher terrain of CO across the discussion
   area this afternoon and evening. Watch issuance is possible over the
   next several hours depending on convective trends.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37240425 38340449 38850422 39050379 38410216 38060132
               37720057 37140059 36730121 36510194 36690339 37240425 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2017
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