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Mesoscale Discussion 868
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0868
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271946Z - 272045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch is not currently anticipated, but some risk for
   occasional severe hail and wind may persist near sustained
   convective development overspreading the region during the next few
   hours.  Much stronger storm development is expected to initiate to
   the south and west of the region by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...A small area of sustained vigorous thunderstorm
   development continues to gradually develop east southeastward into
   portions of the Flint Hills between Wichita and Emporia.  This
   activity is focused within the mid-level thermal gradient, on the
   northern fringe of the plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed
   layer air, which is gradually becoming suppressed
   eastward/southward.  Some further intensification appears at least
   possible within the moist and modestly unstable post-frontal
   environment across southeast Kansas, particularly near/along the
   stalled western flank of convective outflow generated by ongoing
   convection across southwest Missouri. This may be accompanied by the
   continuing risk for occasional severe hail, and perhaps a risk for
   locally strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38299648 38569581 38209489 37819467 37469533 37719628
               37889694 38299648 

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