MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...NW TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 252353Z - 260230Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL/GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THIS
   REGION DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TILLMAN COUNTY OK
   NNWWD ACROSS WRN WASHITA AND ROGER MILLS COUNTIES OK...THEN CLOSE TO
   SVR TSTM NOW EVIDENT OVER HEMPHILL COUNTY TX.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   DRIFT WWD 5-10 KT.  ONLY 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS
   EVIDENT OVER ERN PANHANDLE FROM INTERPOLATED VWP/PROFILER DATA AND
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  NONETHELESS...THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE TO
   EXHIBIT OCNL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS LOCAL LOW LEVEL
   VORTICITY/SRH ENHANCEMENT LIKELY OCCURS ALONG BOUNDARY.
   
   POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
   N-CENTRAL THROUGH E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...EITHER FROM EXISTING
   CONVECTION OVER NERN PANHANDLE OR NEW DEVELOPMENT.  MOST PROBABLE
   AREA FOR SUCH INITIATION/PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE BOUNDED BY WRN OK
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STRONGER OUTFLOW NOW MOVING SEWD OVER PORTIONS
   HUTCHINSON/POTTER/OLDHAM COUNTIES...AND NRN PANHANDLE ACTIVITY NEAR
   AND E OF MVC.  MVC WAS EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS OVER
   SHERMAN COUNTY...AND SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN HANSFORD COUNTY TX
   AND SRN TEXAS COUNTY OK.  CONVECTION MAY AGGREGATE AND
   FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD TO SSEWD ALONG ITS OWN COLD POOL...AND INVOF
   SFC THETAE AXIS EVIDENT FROM ERN TEXAS COUNTY OK SSEWD TO BETWEEN
   LTD-CDS.  THIS AREA ALSO WILL CORRESPONDS TO DEVELOPMENT OF 20-30 KT
   SLY-SSELY LLJ AFTER ABOUT 01Z...WHICH WOULD AID STORM-RELATIVE
   INFLOW.  MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SVR
   LEVELS...AND HAIL WITH STRONGER/EMBEDDED CELLS.  LIMITING FACTORS
   WILL INCLUDE LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   36960114 36520083 36090038 35679954 34949913 34429936
               34349987 34510045 35290100 35960125 36430139 36960114