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Mesoscale Discussion 870
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250...

   VALID 030801Z - 030930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING
   CONVECTION FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING.  THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 250 MAY BE
   CANCELLED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 12Z EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION NOW APPEARS WELL
   UNDERWAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL ADVANCES
   EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRYER
   LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. 
   STRONGEST RECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN STORMS WITHIN A TRAILING
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME /WEST THROUGH NORTH OF
   NORTH PLATTE/...ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED. 
   HOWEVER...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   WEAKENING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING
   OF MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE /NOW PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/...AND
   DOWNSTREAM OF LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN.

   ..KERR.. 06/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...
   CYS...

   LAT...LON   42290162 42490005 42549932 43389989 44209964 44439831
               42919653 41109580 40009599 39809699 40309921 40420126
               40870274 42290162 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2015
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