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Mesoscale Discussion 870
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0870
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 275...

   Valid 272029Z - 272200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 275 continues.

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes
   probably will continue with an evolving mesoscale convective system
   developing east southeastward across the region late this afternoon.
   A general increase in potentially damaging wind gusts also appear
   possible through 22-00Z.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier distinct clusters of strong/severe storms are
   beginning to consolidate across the Missouri Ozarks and
   Interstate-44 corridor of south central Missouri, in the presence of
   large-scale forcing for ascent associated with enhanced lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection.  This is supported by inflow of large
   CAPE (2000-4000 J/kg), which may contribute to considerable further
   upscale convective growth, and perhaps a consolidating and
   strengthening mesoscale convective vortex.  

   Although the boundary layer air mass across a large part of southern
   into central Missouri has been muddled by prior convective outflows,
   the evolution of a significant rear inflow jet associated with any
   mesovortex development may be accompanied by an increasing risk for
   potentially damaging surface gusts.  Otherwise, locally damaging
   wind gusts (and perhaps isolated tornadoes), associated with smaller
   scale mesovortices within the evolving convective system may
   continue east southeastward across much of south central into
   southeast Missouri through 22-00Z.

   ..Kerr.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38199178 38129050 37338963 36548965 36499082 36529192
               36619282 36969230 37419188 38199178 

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