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Mesoscale Discussion 871
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...FAR WRN NEB...CNTRL AND NE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031834Z - 032000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN WY SWD
   INTO CNTRL AND NE CO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH
   OF ERN WY SWD ALONG THE FRONT RAGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
   THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 70 F ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE MCD AREA WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IN MUCH OF ERN CO AND WRN WY WITH THE DENVER 18Z
   SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE NEAR 1800 J/KG. THE LATEST GOES-14 1 MINUTE
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS AND GLACIATION
   OCCURRING IN THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
   GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN WY WITH ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO. IN ADDITION...THE 18Z SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE NEB SHOWS 40 KT
   OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR
   8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE
   BACKED SELY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MATURE
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42910634 41600580 39610517 39160471 38920410 39170328
               39820293 40570302 42230367 43420422 44010448 44550498
               44730580 44540645 43930660 42910634 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2015
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