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Mesoscale Discussion 872
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL KS AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032000Z - 032130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
   PARTS OF EASTERN KS AND FAR WESTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. SPORADIC
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN THE
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   NORTHEAST KS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COLD
   POOL FROM EARLY MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS NE KS AND W MO. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED TO NEAR 7-7.5 DEG C/KM THIS AFTERNOON
   PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KT COUPLED
   WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WILL AID IN MAINTENANCE OF THIS LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY TRACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS
   AND FAR WRN MO. GIVEN THE LIKELY ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE
   STORMS...SPORADIC INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   THE RATHER ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH
   ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38679432 38189426 37959454 37989529 38149621 38619667
               39149679 39399671 39559658 39399542 38969468 38679432 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2015
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