MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 262250Z - 262345Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
   
   A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN-CENTRAL LA MAY GROW UPSCALE
   INTO A BOWING MCS OVER SRN LA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E AT
   AROUND 20-25 KT OVER SWRN INTO CENTRAL LA. 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE
   ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING COLD POOL TO THE REAR OF THE CLUSTER
   OF STORMS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. SURFACE
   AIRMASS E OF THE COLD POOL IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
   LOW TO MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODIFIED RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE CONDITIONS RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
   2500 J/KG...WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM FAVORING DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS. THOUGH MEAN WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY BELOW 20
   KT...THE STRENGTHENING COLD POOL COMBINED WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIRMASS OVER SRN LA MAY FAVOR CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING MCS. IF THIS
   OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD LIKELY
   INCREASE AS WELL.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/26/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   29899161 29719220 29759283 29919339 30259357 30679314
               31279220 31219186 30679162 30179155 29899161