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Mesoscale Discussion 873
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0873
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...the eastern half of Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...

   Valid 272151Z - 272215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues.

   SUMMARY...An extremely unstable airmass is in place across the
   eastern half of Oklahoma.  Once surface-based convective initiation
   begins, explosive thunderstorm development will lead to rapid
   supercell evolution with isolated storm coverage expected.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus
   field across the eastern half of Oklahoma with a mid-level ACCAS
   field across central OK into the greater Tulsa metro.  Eroding
   convective inhibition will gradually prove more favorable for a
   couple of thunderstorms to develop over the next several hours.  20Z
   NSSL mobile soundings in Stephens County, OK and in Ardmore, OK
   showed extreme buoyancy with 6317 J/kg and 6474 J/kg MLCAPE,
   respectively.  The Ardmore 20Z sounding displayed a negligible
   remaining capping inversion.  Effective shear of 48-kt was sampled
   with both soundings.  In summary, explosive thunderstorm development
   is expected with giant hail an initial risk with the updrafts. 
   Middle to upper 70s degrees F dewpoints and forecast 100-200 m2/s2
   0-1 km SRH around 00Z and thereafter will yield a tornado risk
   (perhaps intense) once established supercells are present.

   ..Smith.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33959755 35909752 36929633 36919465 33949645 33959755 

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