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Mesoscale Discussion 873
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KS INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032105Z - 032300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS FROM PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHERN NEB. LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A TORNADO ALSO COULD
   OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SAGGING
   SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. CUMULUS BOTH NEAR
   THE COLD FRONT AND TO THE SOUTH OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS HAVE BECOME MORE AGITATED OVER THE LAST
   HOUR. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
   EAST/NORTHEAST...STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THERE IS
   SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR GIVEN
   GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND THE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS ALONG THE
   COLD FRONT AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  REGARDLESS...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM AND
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
   NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/S COULD RESULT IN A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH
   ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL OR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
   THE ARES IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WEATHER WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38579792 38279821 37999861 37799906 37729968 37810036
               37880065 38510099 39620045 39970022 40349971 40459947
               40479860 40259813 39719776 39119773 38579792 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2015
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