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Mesoscale Discussion 874
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...far southeastern WV...western and southwestern
   VA...eastern TN...and northwest NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 272211Z - 272315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail/damaging gusts
   will likely move into the area from the west early this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows scattered strong to severe
   thunderstorms generally to the west of the spine of the Appalachians
   but this activity is forecast to move east of the the existing
   severe thunderstorm watches early this evening.  Surface
   temperatures into the upper 70s-lower 80s degrees F and dewpoints in
   the 62-66 degrees F range ---resulting in moderate buoyancy (1500
   J/kg MLCAPE).  Effective shear more than adequate for storm
   organization (35-40 kt) will facilitate both severe multicell and
   supercell structures with the stronger storms.  Large hail and
   damaging gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the more intense cores.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36078506 36528393 37268156 37918067 37937971 36947924
               36277949 35658108 35608335 35538414 36078506 

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