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Mesoscale Discussion 874
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV / NRN UT / SERN ID / WRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032138Z - 032315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN PORTIONS OF ID THIS
   EVENING.  THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A
   SEVERE WIND GUST/MARGINAL HAIL RISK.

   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   ACROSS SERN ORE AND MUCH OF NV MOVING ENEWD...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
   OVERSPREAD NRN UT/SERN ID BY EARLY EVENING.  VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR
   MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM SWRN ID INTO ELKO AND
   WHITE PINE COUNTIES IN NV.  FARTHER E...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   RECENTLY NEAR THE ID/UT/WY BORDER.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS
   REGION SHOW TEMPS 75-80 WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
   UPPER 40S.  

   MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS THE SALT
   LAKE BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EWD-PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   /500-1500 SBCAPE/ AND 20-30 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL YIELD THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONGER MULTICELLS.  THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50-70 MPH GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES --GIVEN MINUS 14 DEG C H5 TEMPS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

   LAT...LON   41151539 42291474 43311296 43411168 42061075 41341080
               40601195 39861328 39901428 41151539 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2015
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