MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL...E-CENTRAL AND SERN KS...SMALL
   PART OF N-CENTRAL/NERN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 262321Z - 270015Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OVER
   CORRIDOR FROM ICT-HUT-EMP...WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND STG-SVR
   GUSTS POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD INTO
   FLINT HILLS BEFORE EARLY NOCTURNAL WEAKENING.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS ANIMATIONS INDICATE MESOLOW OVER HARVEY
   COUNTY NEAR EWK...ACTING AS FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE WITH COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TO SWRN OK.  QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDS ENEWD FROM MESOLOW TO NEAR EMP...BECOMING COLD FRONT AGAIN
   NEWD THROUGH SRN PORTIONS KC METRO AREA.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AT AND WITHIN
   50-75 NM E OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD EMP AREA.  ALTHOUGH
   WEAK ABSOLUTE SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...BACKED NATURE OF
   FLOW INVOF LOW AND ALONG EWD EXTENDING FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MESOBETA SCALE ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...BENEATH ABOUT 30 KT 500 MB WINDS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE AROUND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE...JUXTAPOSED WITH
   AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE INVOF FLINT HILLS FRONTAL SEGMENT.  THIS MAY
   SUPPORT SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS WELL AS SMALL BOWING
   SEGMENTS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD SWD ALONG
   COLD FRONT INTO NRN OK DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF
   WEAK SBCINH.  HOWEVER PREFRONTAL/SWLY WIND SHIFT WILL LIMIT BOTH
   CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR...INDICATING MORE
   UNCERTAIN/DISORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL WITH SWD EXTENT UNTIL REACHING
   MOSTLY SEPARATE REGIME IN AND NEAR WW 312.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36599721 37449750 38199733 38489652 38489546 38179501
               37879503 37239569 36139650 36079698 36599721