Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 875
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 875 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA...NRN FL...SERN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032150Z - 032345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS -- A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SVR.
   HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND
   1500-2500 J PER KG/ S OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SFC FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM SW OF ATL TO S-CNTRL/SERN GA. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS BEING
   SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPS THAT WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S TO
   AROUND 90F AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY ORGANIZED IN SMALL CLUSTERS...ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BE FED BY THE UNSTABLE AIR FARTHER S. THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY OF SPREADING SEWD AS NEW CONVECTION
   DEVELOPS INTO THE LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA...WHERE
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. THE VAX VWP SAMPLES
   AROUND 30-40 KT OF HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN RIM OF A
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SUCH
   FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE VENTILATION/SUSTAINABILITY INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAKER FLOW LOWER IN THE TROPOSPHERE WILL
   HAVE A TENDENCY OF MITIGATING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
   GREATER-COVERAGE STRONG/SVR-TSTM RISK. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED DMGG
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL APPROACHING MARGINALLY SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY NEAR CONVECTIVE MERGERS IN NON-PERTURBED
   AIR S OF THE BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
   TOWARD/AFTER DUSK.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   30298440 31058549 32188493 31858417 31448330 31298160
               30288170 30018252 30298440 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 03, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities