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Mesoscale Discussion 876
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0814 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / WRN NEB PANHANDLE / CO HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 251...

   VALID 040114Z - 040215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 251 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE HAIL RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE CO HIGH
   PLAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN WY
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO
   ACCOUNT FOR A SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE 04/03 UTC EXPIRATION OF
   TORNADO WATCH 251.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR/SATELLITE MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLD STORMS ALONG THE
   I-25 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE NWD INTO SERN WY.  MOIST
   ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S DEWPOINTS IS CONTINUING
   TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /1100 J PER KG MLCAPE PER 00 UTC
   DNR RAOB/ AND ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY
   LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
   WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS STORMS.  DESPITE A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE INVOF
   THE CO/WY BORDER NWD INTO SERN WY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --ANALYZED
   OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN-- APPROACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING.  IF A
   CONGEALING OF COLD POOLS AND UPSCALE GROWTH MANAGE TO OCCUR...A
   CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD TOWARDS A STRENGTHENING
   LLJ THIS EVENING WITH ITS AXIS ALIGNED FROM W TX INTO WRN KS.  A
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK WOULD PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
   AND LIKELY REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER NERN CO/WRN
   NEB/NWRN KS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42780375 42600340 39180301 38780371 38700457 39160522
               41730565 42560540 42810463 42780375 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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