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Mesoscale Discussion 876
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...ERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071642Z - 071915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
   REGION...AND WILL ADVANCE SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL EXIST
   A RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR STORMS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING INVOF A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED NW-SE FROM UPSTATE SC
   TO N OF SAVANNAH GA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
   SRN APPALACHIANS. CONTINUED ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE BOUNDARY AND
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
   STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
   INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F -- IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500
   J/KG PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z CHS RAOB...AND THESE VALUES WILL
   INCREASE OWING TO AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION. THIS BUOYANCY WILL
   YIELD STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS --
   AIDED BY WATER LOADING -- AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   HOWEVER...WITH LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AOB 15 KT PER AREA VWP
   DATA...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
   SVR RISK...WHILE WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ALSO LIMITS ANY SVR TSTM
   COVERAGE.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32048087 32938276 34508364 35118316 35128181 34818071
               34057959 33227923 32627968 32048087 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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