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Mesoscale Discussion 877
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0820 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS/NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 252...

   VALID 040120Z - 040315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 252 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 252.

   DISCUSSION...A DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORM IS EXHIBITING LITTLE NET
   MOTION OVER PORTIONS OF HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE COUNTIES KS. THIS CELL
   LIES ALONG A NE/SW BOUNDARY THAT APPROXIMATELY BISECTS KS. THE
   ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
   BOUNDARY ARE SUPPORTING STRONG DYNAMIC PERTURBATIONS YIELDING
   MINIMAL/OCCASIONAL SWD TO WSWWD...MEAN-FLOW-DEVIANT STORM MOTION. IN
   THE SHORT-TERM...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL --
   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- AND DMGG WINDS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
   COUNTIES...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO EDWARDS COUNTY. THE DDC VWP
   HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
   DEVELOPMENT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS SLY/SWLY FLOW IN THE
   1-2-KM-AGL LAYER HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY. FURTHER INCREASE IN TORNADO
   POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LLJ
   STRENGTHENS AND LCLS LOWER...BEFORE MLCINH BECOMES MORE SUBSTANTIAL.

   FARTHER N...SLOPED ASCENT N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED
   WARM-SECTOR-ORIGINATING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFCS. CONVECTION IS
   BLOSSOMING N OF HAYS TO SALINA...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
   FARTHER N INTO EARLY EVENING. MODIFICATIONS TO THE DDC 00Z RAOB FOR
   CONDITIONS N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT -- DESPITE SOME MODEST
   CAPPING -- EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE BASED AT THE SFC WHERE HIGH
   THETA-E AIR EXISTS. FURTHERMORE...30-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DMGG WINDS. THE BACKED SFC WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENHANCE
   STORM INGESTION OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY AND SOME TORNADO RISK...AS
   WELL...ESPECIALLY AS THE LLJ INCREASES. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO
   SMALL...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING
   WIND WITH SVR WIND/HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

   ..COHEN.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37760061 39780061 41009635 38979635 37760061 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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