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Mesoscale Discussion 877
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NRN
   AR...WRN TN...FAR SWRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071725Z - 071930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF CONVECTION IS CROSSING THE MS RIVER NEAR AND
   N OF ST LOUIS...AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE ERN
   SEMICIRCLE OF 1006-MB SFC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER W-CNTRL MO. THIS
   ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LONG-LIVED MCV THAT EVOLVED
   FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND IS GENERALLY
   CO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC CYCLONE. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   MCV/CONVECTIVE ARC INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS ONGOING OWING TO AT
   LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION AMIDST UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F SFC DEWPOINTS
   S/SW OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR STL SEWD TO MIDDLE TN. THIS
   MAY LEAD TO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT
   SPREADS EWD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DMGG WIND RISK -- POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO.

   OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED
   AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WWD TO A CONFLUENCE
   AXIS EXTENDING S OF THE CYCLONE TO N-CNTRL AR. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES
   MID-LEVEL CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- I.E.  FROM
   S-CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT FAR NRN AR -- AND THIS MAY BE A FAVORABLE
   ZONE FOR EVENTUAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MORE A MORE DISCRETE
   CONVECTIVE MODE AND 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. STRONGER INSTABILITY IN
   THIS REGION -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG -- WILL AID IN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. THE TORNADO RISK COULD INCREASE
   IF SUSTAINED CONVECTION WERE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO MORE BACKED SFC
   WINDS FOUND E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.
   HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE SPATIALLY CONFINED OWING TO SFC
   WINDS EXHIBITING A TENDENCY OF VEERING WITHIN APPRECIABLE
   PROPORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36379305 37419225 38269081 39209015 39368928 38558762
               37118741 35848850 35418986 35449267 36379305 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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