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Mesoscale Discussion 877
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0877
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272300Z - 280030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Portions of north Texas are being monitored for
   thunderstorm development. A substantial conditional (upon
   development) severe risk exists and watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have recently been noted near the Red
   River across portions of north TX. While large-scale forcing is weak
   at best across this area, continued convergence in the vicinity of a
   diffuse dryline may result in storm development during the next 1-2
   hours. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a very warm and moist
   boundary layer are resulting in extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely
   approaching 6000 J/kg in some areas. With moderately strong
   southwesterly midlevel flow across the region, effective shear is
   more than sufficient for supercells, and any storms that develop
   will have a threat of giant hail and localized, but potentially
   significant, wind gusts. While low-level flow, as sampled by area
   VWPs, is not overly strong, some tornado threat would also exist
   given the extreme CAPE environment and some expected intensification
   of the low-level jet later this evening. 

   It is unclear how many storms, if any, will develop in the short
   term across this area, but watch issuance may become necessary if
   initiation appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33789869 33949857 34059824 33809741 33279722 32689758
               32339810 32199899 32569939 33319886 33789869 

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