MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 110639Z - 110815Z
   
   AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST
   TX INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
   OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM
   EAST TX INTO WEST CENTRAL LA. WHILE MASS FIELDS/PRIMARY LARGE SCALE
   SUPPORT ARE FOCUSED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE SOUTHEAST
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FROM EAST TX INTO SOUTHERN MS.
   EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM SHREVEPORT AND JACKSON MS ARE
   REPRESENTIVE OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS THAT EXISTS AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPES ESTIMATED TO BE 2000-3000 J/KG AMIDST
   45-55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/FRONTAL FORCING
   WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK.
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT
   OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WATCH.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/11/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   30569650 31599587 31889322 32119028 32028866 30858912
   29999316 29329580