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Mesoscale Discussion 878
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0878
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Areas affected...Northern AR and southern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 272317Z - 280015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed soon across northern
   Arkansas, as intense thunderstorms approach from the west and

   DISCUSSION...Explosive thunderstorm development is underway across
   northeast OK into southwest MO, along and just ahead of a southward
   moving cold front, with additional development possible further
   south into east-central OK and northwest AR. This activity will
   begin to approach the area of northern AR not currently covered by a
   tornado watch within 1-2 hours. Extreme CAPE and sufficient
   effective shear will support potentially significant hail and
   particularly damaging winds. While the convective mode may be
   relatively linear, some tornado threat will also exist, especially
   as the low-level jet increases this evening. 

   With these factors in mind, a new tornado watch will be coordinated
   shortly for portions of southern MO and northern AR.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36909327 36959199 36979135 36849060 35649022 35339146
               35419233 35469304 35549337 35649355 35819357 36159349

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