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Mesoscale Discussion 878
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR
   NORTHERN TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071806Z - 072030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE
   OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF SHALLOW
   COOLER AIR -- 0.5-KM DEEP NLYS PER TLX VWP -- FROM FAR SW MO TO WRN
   N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AS STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING
   TO ITS S ERODES THE SRN FRINGES OF THE COOL AIR WITH LITTLE
   REINFORCEMENT FROM LARGER-SCALE ISALLOBARIC FORCING/CONVECTION. WITH
   SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING BREACHED 90F INVOF THE RED RIVER...A BROAD
   ZONE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS SWELLING FROM WRN N TX TO NEAR
   ARDMORE. SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM FROM THIS CU DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE BEING MAINTAINED/INTENSIFYING OWING TO
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SLOPED FRONTAL SFC. ALSO...BAROCLINICITY
   AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SRN FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYER
   CLOUDS FARTHER E INTO E-CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL AR MAY FOSTER A SIMILAR
   UPTICK IN CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OUN RAOB FOR THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY
   SUGGEST MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
   INHIBITION...SUPPORTING INTENSE CONVECTION WITH SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS
   POSSIBLE. MODERATE BUOYANCY EXTENDS A COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES N OF
   THE BOUNDARY WHERE DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
   SFC DEWPOINTS...AND ISOLATED SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR N
   AS THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR ENCOURAGED BY
   35-40-KT WSWLYS SAMPLED BY THE TLX/FDR VWPS MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34769971 35249849 35539571 35569399 35209314 34479362
               33949501 33609822 33859972 34769971 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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