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Mesoscale Discussion 879
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071927Z - 072130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A
   TORNADO WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED DISCRETE STORMS...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
   CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A CONFLUENCE
   AXIS THAT TRAILS S OF A SFC CYCLONE ANALYZED OVER CNTRL MO. HEATING
   ON THE BACKSIDE OF CONVECTION THAT EARLIER CROSSED THE MS RIVER HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AN MCV COLLOCATED
   WITH THE SFC CYCLONE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW...THOUGH
   BACKED SFC WINDS E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   250-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH PER THE LSX VWP...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME
   TORNADO RISK -- ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY ACCOMPANYING SFC
   DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY MAY BE
   DELETERIOUS FOR THE SUPPORT OF A GREATER SVR TSTM RISK...THOUGH
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38549148 39419062 39418959 38618934 37888974 37549059
               37619139 38549148 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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