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Mesoscale Discussion 880
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071958Z - 072230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
   IN NRN NM...WHERE EARLIER STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS BOLSTERED
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...CLOUDY/MOIST AIR
   BENEATH CAPPING ALOFT HAS INHIBITED APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION.
   HOWEVER...SOME INCREASING IN MIXING HAS RECENTLY YIELDED POCKETS OF
   STRONGER INSOLATION AMIDST LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS TO SUPPORT MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BEGIN TO EXTEND EWD ONTO
   THE PLAINS...AIDED BY 30-50-KT WLYS IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
   CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER PER FTG/PUX VWPS. LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   WILL AID IN SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL RISK...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
   PRIMARY CONCERN...AND SOME TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS -- THOUGH MITIGATED BY RESIDUAL STATIC STABILITY. IF
   AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS BREED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DMGG
   WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONCERN.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38240532 39360524 39510471 38250336 36770314 36480439
               37080502 38240532 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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