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Mesoscale Discussion 880
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS / S-CNTRL NE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 252...

   VALID 040501Z - 040630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 252 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BUT A
   TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CYCLONIC SUPERCELLS BEFORE PARCELS
   BECOME INCREASINGLY NON SURFACE-BASED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND WDSS-II MESH IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
   SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE S-CNTRL NEB AND N-CNTRL KS BORDER REGION WITH
   SOME STORMS EXHIBITING LARGE-HAIL SIGNATURES BUT THESE HAVE
   DECREASED DURING THE PAST 15-30 MINUTES.  STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL
   ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ADEQUATELY MOIST LOW LEVELS
   CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 67-71 DEG F RANGE WILL
   LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME ABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   PARCELS TO BE INGESTED INTO THE STORMS WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
   PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS.  THE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PRESENT
   OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO
   RISK WITH CYCLONIC SUPERCELLS BUT THIS THREAT WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED WITH TIME AS MLCIN INCREASES.

   ..SMITH.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39199769 39039953 39020045 39470067 40329987 40859842
               41019757 40519621 39559642 39199769 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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